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The world's most important shipping lane is on fire. Literally.
The US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Strait of Hormuz this week. Brent hit $101. WTI $95. Trump called it "just a love tap" and said the ceasefire holds.
A deal is on the table. Iran opens the strait. The US lifts its blockade. Nuclear talks come later. Trump says he's seen the concept and is waiting on the wording.
230 oil tankers are sitting inside the Gulf right now, waiting.
Meanwhile the Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, the most dissent since 1992. Jerome Powell's term ends next week. Kevin Warsh takes over May 15.
And Trump flies to Beijing this month for his first meeting with Xi in eight years, while China is countering US sanctions by telling its companies to ignore them.
Three pressure points. One fragile moment.