$BTC 1. The Federal Reserve Leadership Turnover Curse Logic

Historically, leadership changes at the Federal Reserve come with a market curse, and the patterns are extremely clear. In the week when the chair nominee is announced and the nomination is implemented, BTC generally pulls back 15%–25%. In the first week after the formal inauguration, it sells off again by about 30%. Over the entire term, the maximum cumulative drawdown can be as high as 60%–85%.

As the 2026 Wash leadership inauguration window approaches, historical patterns can be followed. It is crucial to complete risk control in advance, strictly manage position sizing, and avoid subsequent downside risks.

2. The macro impact of the U.S. visit to China

The U.S. plans to visit China on May 14–15, becoming an important, phased window for China-U.S. relations.

Focus on three core variables: adjustments to trade tariffs, restrictions in the technology sector, and easing of geopolitical tensions. The overall tone is tilted toward cooling geopolitical risk-averse sentiment and restoring market risk appetite.

On the eve of the meetings and during the process, expectations of a thaw in China-U.S. relations rise, boosting global risk appetite. The NASDAQ and technology stocks may see a short-term rebound and repair. However, if there are no concrete positive developments after the meeting, the market is likely to play out a “buy the expectation, sell the reality” pattern. Combined with the pressure on valuations in U.S. stocks themselves at elevated levels, the most likely outcome afterward is a period of consolidation followed by a pullback #比特币跌破8万美元