Below the 200-day moving average, a bearish script is unfolding.

77k short position has been established, with a mid-term target of 40k — current long-term layout key points

1. Technical: Fake breakout of the 200-day moving average confirmed, the bearish trend has just begun

This week, Bitcoin rebounded to around 77k, just touching the 200-day moving average (83,300 USD), but was quickly pushed back down, forming a classic bear market false breakout pattern. Historically, once this pattern appears, there are often deeper declines afterward, with the least resistance clearly downward, and the first mid-term target directly at 77k USD.

2. Macro: Greater downside risks are expected after next week

The current core pressure is not short-term sentiment, but the Federal Reserve’s policy shift toward tightening. On May 15, hawkish figure Waller officially took over as Fed Chair, forcing the market to reprice “long-term high interest rates and even additional rate hikes.” The impact of this liquidity tightening will be reflected in advance, and a larger wave of BTC decline is likely to accelerate after next Wednesday.

3. Major event: Tonight’s non-farm payroll is likely to accelerate the bear trend

As long as the US April non-farm payroll data does not collapse (below 40k), the rate cut expectations will remain locked in. If new jobs exceed expectations, it could trigger a new wave of long liquidation, pushing prices quickly toward 79.5K and 77K support levels. Our short positions are precisely anchored to this path.

4. Trading plan: Take profits in stages, add to shorts on rebounds, hold positions firmly until next week

We have established core short positions in the 82,500-83k range with a relatively large position. In the short term, we will take partial profits around 80K, locking in about 2,000 points of profit, while the remaining long-term shorts remain unchanged. Any rebound back to 80-81K is an opportunity to add to shorts again, aiming to find high points for adding positions before or around next Wednesday, with an overall target of 75-77K. Strictly set stop-losses to prevent unexpected dovish comments during Waller’s initial tenure.

5. Besides, mainstream coins like Ethereum, BNB, etc., show much weaker rebound strength compared to Bitcoin, with weak capital grouping willingness, and overall market sentiment remains bearish. I will closely monitor market changes, precisely control pressure and support levels, and synchronize daily short-term trading strategies to avoid trap setups and steadily grasp this trend’s opportunities.