⚠️WHAT ARE THE MARKET PRICES EXPECTING TODAY?

Markets are trying to navigate in an atmosphere of "low-intensity war" squeezed between hot conflict updates from the Middle East and Donald Trump’s optimistic remarks. Here are the key critical developments:
• Gunpowder Smell in the Gulf: Despite Iran’s attacks, the entry and exit of US warships into and out of the Gulf, and the US striking Iranian sources in retaliation, keep tensions at a peak. Meanwhile, the back-and-forth attacks between Iran and the UAE further deepen regional risks.
• Trump’s “Morphine” Strategy: After clashes that lasted throughout the night, Trump’s calming messages—like “An agreement could happen at any moment”—create a morphine-like effect that eases pressure on the markets.
• The FED’s Day of Reckoning (US Employment Data): Today at 15:30, the data to be released is expected to show employment at 65,000 and unemployment at 4.3%.
• Strong Data: Shows that the economy is resilient; it lifts the dollar and bond yields and gives the FED more room to maneuver.
• Weak Data: Combined with inflation risk, it signals stagflation (inflation amid economic stagnation); it puts the FED in a tight spot between its two targets.
• New Front in Global Trade Wars: With Trump’s China visit in 6 days (along with headlines on Taiwan and Iran) expected, threats of additional tariffs targeting the EU continue. However, the Federal Trade Court’s finding that Trump’s 10% tariffs are illegal presents a major obstacle for the administration.
• Market Reaction: Risk appetite has turned positive with Trump’s calming support. While markets are projecting a readiness to move higher, the employment data coming in the afternoon will be the true deciding factor of the day.
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