Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank Emerging Markets Chief Investment Officer, Jacky Tang, said in an interview that under the “fragile” ceasefire’s base case scenario, oil prices could fall to $85–90 per barrel by the end of the second quarter. He noted that the probability of the base case scenario occurring exceeds 60%, and that most energy supplies will recover by the end of the second quarter. Jacky Tang said that depending on the duration of the Iran conflict, there are three possible base case scenarios for the direction of oil prices. In the less likely pessimistic scenario—where the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until next year—he expects oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel and remain elevated for a prolonged period, thereby creating a risk of stagflation.