#ArthurHayesBullishOnAltcoins

Gold Strengthens Amid US–Iran Peace Uncertainty

Uncertainty in US–Iran peace negotiations and its impact on global oil prices
Fed interest rate expectations ahead of US employment data release
Friday, May 8, 2026 – Gold prices opened higher at $4,694 per troy ounce supported by a weakening US dollar and increased safe haven demand amid uncertainty in US–Iran peace negotiations. Market sentiment temporarily improved after reports emerged that Washington and Tehran are drafting a peace agreement framework in Pakistan next week. However, optimism began to fade after various statements from Tehran regarding the US proposal, including rejection of plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without compensation and certain guarantees. This uncertainty again triggered oil price volatility and raised concerns over global energy supply disruptions.

Gold movements were also influenced by energy price dynamics and global monetary policy directions. After plunging sharply earlier this week, oil prices rebounded following reports that the US is considering continuing military escort operations for commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This situation raised inflation concerns and reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack even mentioned that interest rates might stay at current levels for a considerable period. Nevertheless, the weakening of the US dollar index and increased gold accumulation by central banks, including China which has been adding to its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, remain supportive of prices.

Looking ahead, market focus will be on the release of US employment data (nonfarm payrolls/NFP) scheduled for tonight as a key indicator of the US economy’s strength and the Fed’s policy direction throughout 2026. In addition to NFP, investors will also monitor further developments in US–Iran negotiations, especially regarding nuclear issues and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which are expected to remain primary sources of global market volatility in the short term.

Technically, the nearest support level for gold prices is around $4,660 to $4,633, while the nearest resistance is at $4,739 to $4,791. If selling pressure increases, deeper support is seen at $4,554, while medium-term resistance is in the $4,870 area.