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❗❗In the next 24 hours to a week, what should we be watching❗❗
First, tonight at 8:30 PM (Singapore time), the US April data. If job growth significantly exceeds about 62k and wages are hot, the market will further trade on “higher interest rates for longer,” which is negative for long-duration assets and cryptocurrencies; if the data is notably weak, the market will try to bet on the Fed turning sooner, but it still depends on wages and subsequent CPI data.
Second, the US April CPI on May 12. According to the BLS schedule, CPI will be released on May 12. For the market, non-farm payrolls determine “whether growth is starting to slow,” while CPI determines “whether the Fed can ease.” If both move in a weak direction, stocks, bonds, and gold are expected to benefit; if employment remains steady and inflation sticky, pressure will return to bonds and high-valued assets.
Third, whether the Middle East situation truly cools down. Recently, the most volatile asset in the market has been crude oil, which is also the “intermediate variable” for all current assets. As long as oil prices stay around $100, the entire asset pricing will not be easy.
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⭐Today’s note, the most important thing to remember is not a specific level, but these three sentences:
1/ The stock market has not turned bearish yet, but has already entered the “high-level screening” phase from “full rally.” The AI main theme is not dead; in fact, it’s still strong, just more crowded.
2/ Bond yields are now the most critical central variable. If the long end continues to rise, gold, $BTC , and US stocks will all be forced to reprice.
3/ Crude oil is currently the biggest macro disturbance. If oil prices do not fall back, the Fed will find it difficult to quickly turn dovish, and the market will also find it hard to re-enter “reckless risk appetite.”
Today’s observation order 👉: first watch non-farm payrolls, then US bond yields, then oil prices, and finally decide which will be the next relatively strong asset—US stocks, gold, or BTC.
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Summary ⭐
The core trading logic today is only one sentence:
The market is simultaneously trading “strong AI profits,” “rising oil prices boosting inflation,” and “the Fed finding it harder to turn dovish.”