#Gate广场五月交易分享 Today's Gold and Crude Oil Analysis: Major Non-Farm Payrolls Night Approaching! The battle for the gold trading range is about to begin!

Gold:                                      
The suspense before the non-farm payrolls release is at its peak! The bullish pattern for gold remains unchanged, with high-level oscillations hiding a potential pullback opportunity.
As Middle East geopolitical conflicts gradually ease, oil prices are directly pressured to fall back, and market risk aversion sentiment diminishes accordingly. Some safe-haven buying in gold is also being diluted. Currently, global funds are highly focused on the Fed's rate cut pace, with employment data still the key indicator influencing monetary policy direction and the gold-silver market trend. If upcoming US employment data exceeds market expectations, the dollar may see short-term strength, putting short-term pressure on gold prices; if employment data shows weakness, it will further confirm expectations of easing monetary policy, solidifying the bullish fundamentals for gold.
Looking at the daily chart, gold still firmly maintains a strong bullish pattern. After breaking through the key resistance levels of $4600 and $4660 successively, the bullish momentum has been fully unleashed. Currently, the daily moving averages remain in a standard bullish alignment, and the MACD indicator stays high in the zone, indicating that medium- and long-term main funds continue to hold a bullish outlook on gold.
However, from the detailed chart perspective, the previous gains in gold have been substantial, with many technical indicators entering overbought territory. The market has accumulated profit-taking, and a short-term correction for profit realization is reasonable. The current short-term support level is $4680. As long as gold can stay above this level, the bullish trend may gather strength again, aiming for the $4750 to $4800 target zone; conversely, if non-farm employment data is significantly better than expected, it will boost the dollar's rebound, and gold may experience a phase of decline, likely retesting $4660, with a deep correction possibly reaching around $4620.
Switching to the 4-hour chart, gold is currently in a sideways consolidation at high levels. The RSI indicator is gradually cooling down, and the MACD red bars are shrinking, reflecting a decrease in short-term bullish enthusiasm. However, the overall higher-level bullish trend remains intact; this recent pullback is seen as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.

Major Non-Farm Payrolls Night Approaching! The battle for the gold trading range is about to begin
Tonight, the market will release the US April non-farm payrolls data, which is the key turning point that global funds are closely watching this week. Fluctuations in the unemployment rate will directly influence market expectations of the Fed's rate cut cycle and affect the overall market direction.
Based on previous forecasts, ADP employment data and initial jobless claims all showed negative signals, with high employment market activity but weaker-than-expected unemployment-related data. The final outcome of this non-farm report will directly determine whether gold can break out of the $4660-$4760 range.
From a technical perspective, $4660 is currently the short-term support and resistance dividing line for gold. When the price stays above this level, short-term long positions can be considered around the $4695-$4690 range; if it breaks below $4660, it is advisable to open short positions on the rebound.
The first target above is the $4750-$4760 resistance zone. If gold successfully breaks through, the bullish trend will further extend, with potential to reach $4800 and even target higher levels around $4850. Volatility will intensify during non-farm payrolls night, so manage your positions carefully and wait for the data to be released. (Note: Heavy positions, no stop-loss, do not follow for locked-in positions)

Next, let's talk about crude oil                          
Geopolitical risks support the oil market, WTI crude oil remains volatile at high levels
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical hub for global energy transportation. The potential supply disruption risks in shipping lanes continue to concern capital markets, and risk aversion regarding oil supply persists, providing a solid bottom support for international oil prices. Short-term, oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at high levels.
From a technical analysis perspective, WTI crude oil remains in a stable medium- to long-term bullish trend. The price previously broke through the key resistance of $95, testing a high of around $100, indicating that geopolitical risk premiums are still a core factor influencing short-term oil prices.
Currently, the daily moving averages are diverging upward in a healthy pattern, and the MACD remains high and stable, confirming that the medium- and long-term upward trend has not reversed. If oil prices can hold above $95, the upward momentum will continue, further testing the $98-$100 resistance zone; the key support below is at $91, with $88 as the last line of defense for bulls.
Switching to the 4-hour chart for detailed analysis, WTI crude oil has entered a short-term technical correction. The RSI indicator is retreating from overbought territory, and many short-term long positions are taking profits, causing the price to fluctuate in a high-level consolidation pattern.
The 1-hour structure remains weak, with signs of a weak rebound hidden as a shakeout
In the 1-hour convergence cycle, crude oil continues to oscillate in a low range. The current rebound is merely a weak correction, not a trend reversal. The price fluctuates around the moving average system, with short-term bulls and bears in a tug-of-war, resulting in sideways consolidation.
Returning to the primary trend, the overall trend remains bearish, with bears still dominant. Fortunately, selling pressure has been gradually easing, and declining momentum is weakening, with profit-taking driving a slight rebound.
Considering the overall cautious optimism in the oil market sentiment, investors hope for a stabilization of Middle East geopolitical tensions and avoid excessive volatility, but cannot ignore the real risks of energy transportation supply crises. Coupled with low global oil inventories, OPEC+ sticking to production cuts, and rising transportation risks, the international oil market will likely remain highly volatile. Trading should follow the trend and focus on risk management, especially position sizing and stop-loss measures. (Note: Heavy positions, no stop-loss, do not follow for locked-in positions)