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Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,815, and the market is at a real crossroads. Here are 4 key points to know:
1. On Chain: Large Holders Accumulating
Over the past 30 days, long-term wallets have added 331,000 BTC. This means a net accumulation of over $80,000 USD. During the same period, inflows into spot ETFs continued. Retail investors are hesitant, asking "Is this the top?" while institutional investors are buying the dip. This divergence often appears before major moves.
2. Macro Pressure: Watch NFP
JOLTS data on May 5 was strong, shifting rate cut expectations to July. Tomorrow, May 8, the NFP report will be released. If the data exceeds expectations, short-term selling pressure may occur, with the first support at $76,500. If below expectations, the $82,000 - $84,000 range could be quickly tested.
3. May Calendar: Volatility Guaranteed
• May 12: CPI data. Inflation trends will determine the Fed's moves.
• May 15: Fed Chair's term ends. The tone of the new chair will influence the market.
• May 22: Bitcoin Pizza Day. Social volume increases, and sharp swings become more frequent.
• May 29: Monthly options expiry. The "maximum pain" zone $80k , where price may be pulled toward, is noteworthy.
4. Liquidity Warning
In the past two weeks, the reserve of tokens with fixed prices in market maker wallets has decreased by 6.2%. Order books have thinned out. This indicates sharp spikes during data releases. Use wider stop-loss gaps or reduce leverage in leveraged trades.
Summary
Staying above the $80K level is crucial for BTC. Institutional buying continues, but macro data and low liquidity will make short-term volatility unpredictable. Buying some for spot accumulation is sensible; trading during data releases is very risky.
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Note: This article is not investment advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).