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Tonight's easy long and short trap! The market is again seeking safety!
First, there are two important time periods tonight, one is at 20:30 Beijing time, when the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released; the other is from 22:00 to 24:00, which is when important news is likely to emerge. Additionally, according to the daily schedule, Trump will give a speech at the White House Rose Garden at 24:00 tonight.
Trump usually only has two major events in the Rose Garden: signing a significant trade bill or announcing a historic peace/war process.
Second, Iran is currently reviewing the proposal from the U.S. to end the war. Compared to yesterday, oil prices have risen again, giving Iran more flexibility.
For every $1 increase in oil prices, Iran gains more confidence at the negotiation table.
After yesterday's clashes, Iran has taken a low-profile approach in the propaganda war.
History shows that Iran's retaliations after being humiliated often have a delay.
If they have no movement within the next 48 hours, it indicates they might be planning a "big" move.
Now, it all depends on how Iran responds—whether "good news" or "bad news," it will be a big surprise to the market—because the market has no expectations for it.
Before 20:30, the market is betting on economic resilience; from 22:00 to 24:00, the market is digesting economic data and rumors; after 24:00, the market will follow Trump's lips' fluctuations.