China-U.S. AI to soon converse: a preview of interactions between the two AI superpowers

According to Beating Monitoring, the United States and China are preparing to launch a new official AI safety dialogue, attempting to establish “guardrails” to prevent crises in their technological competition. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. side will be led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while the Chinese side will involve officials such as Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min in preliminary mechanism communications.

This official engagement aims to establish a crisis management mechanism similar to those during the Cold War. The core topics both sides plan to discuss include: preventing unpredictable behavior of AI models, regulating autonomous military systems, and addressing threats from hackers and other non-state actors abusing powerful open-source tools. Industry insiders speculate that the two sides may explore establishing a high-level “AI hotline.” Experts familiar with China’s position point out that China is open to discussions on technical safeguards and governance; the main tone of its participation in the dialogue is “not seeking alliances, but seeking stability” (Stability, not alignment).

However, this preventive dialogue is facing a test from the U.S. lead negotiator’s strongly confrontational posture. According to Bloomberg and multiple other peripheral media outlets, Bessent has recently taken an extremely hardline stance on AI issues with China: in mid-April, he publicly claimed that Anthropic’s cutting-edge models would ensure the United States can suppress China in the AI field; just at the end of last month, he also publicly attacked a senator who invited scholars from Tsinghua University to participate in a U.S. AI safety forum, asserting that “the real threat to AI safety is letting any country other than the U.S. set global standards.” This dual-track strategy—seeking to prevent loss of control while excluding other countries from participating in rule-making—is the biggest variable in the negotiations.

Historically, this is not the first time China and the U.S. have attempted official AI engagement. The Biden administration facilitated the first round of high-level dialogue in 2023, but because China designated officials from its diplomatic system rather than technical experts to lead, substantive technical discussions were limited. However, beyond official engagements, a “second track” (non-governmental) communication channel that was set up through Kissinger before his death in 2023 is still ongoing. Former Microsoft executive Craig Mundie, representatives from Tsinghua University, and China’s leading large-model companies continue to maintain private exchanges regarding frontier model safety and alignment issues.