Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio Warns the U.S. Is Entering a "Great Turmoil" Period, with Multiple Structural Forces Colliding to Profoundly Reshape the Nation and the World in the Next Five Years.

In a podcast on July 7th with The New York Times, Dalio stated that massive fiscal deficits, growing income inequality, political polarization between the left and right, the reconfiguration of geopolitical landscapes, and disruptive impacts from artificial intelligence will collectively drive this turbulent situation.

"All these forces coming together will lead to significant changes in the next five years," he said, "and after that, the world will be almost unrecognizable, with enormous shifts, marking an era full of upheaval and intense turmoil."

For investors, Dalio recommends maintaining gold allocations between 5% and 15% of their portfolios, citing historical patterns that during similar turbulent times, all fiat currencies tend to depreciate, while gold appreciates. Political conflicts may intensify after midterm elections.

Dalio expressed deep concern about the stability of American society and political systems, explicitly mentioning the potential risks of violence and conflict.

He predicts that the Republican Party may lose control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, which would serve as a turning point for further political and social tensions. "From that point on, you will see the intensity of political and social conflicts rising continuously, especially during the period between that election and the 2028 presidential election."

On the international stage, Dalio believes that the rule-based international order no longer exists. He describes the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict as an almost black-and-white choice—centered on who will control the Strait of Hormuz and who will hold nuclear materials. This judgment indicates that geopolitical risks have shifted from ambiguous strategic games to more direct strategic confrontations. Gold is the preferred asset in times of chaos, and diversified allocations are the way to cope.

In response to these risks, Dalio offers a clear asset allocation strategy: maintain a highly diversified investment portfolio and keep gold holdings between 5% and 15%. He cites historical experience showing that during such turbulent periods, fiat currencies invariably weaken, and gold plays a central role as a store of value.

Meanwhile, Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, also issued a warning, stating that the world is facing a "large-scale geopolitical restructuring," which will lead to an increase in blue-collar status, while white-collar groups will face greater pressure.