Trump, Iran, oil prices, BTC: This market feels like four people playing mahjong

Right now, the global market is very much like a mahjong game.
Trump: "I want low oil prices."
Iran: "I want chips."
Federal Reserve: "I want to see the data."
BTC: "I want liquidity."
In the end, no one is giving in to anyone.
The "Free Plan" almost succeeded initially. The market had already started trading a "rate cut bull market."
But after the Fuchairah incident, crude oil directly tore up the script.
Now the market has entered the most classic macro phase:
"Inflation expectations are bouncing back and forth."
And BTC fears this environment the most.
Because it needs stable and loose expectations.
If the market worries about oil prices every day, risk assets will find it hard to truly feel comfortable.
Will the Oman negotiations succeed?
I think there's a high probability they will, but not in one go.
Because both sides need time and chips.
So, in the future, the market is very likely to continue:
Talking while fighting,
Rising and falling simultaneously.
In this environment, I most recommend:
Reduce trading frequency.
Because news volatility is too fast,
Chasing gains and selling losses can easily turn into "human fuel."
What’s truly worth watching now is:
Can crude oil fall back below $100?
If yes,
It indicates the market believes the situation won't escalate fully.
Then BTC is very likely to re-enter a strong cycle. #比特币跌破8万美元 #比特币跌破8万美元