8:30 AM US April Non-Farm Payrolls Data Released, the last key employment report before Powell's departure, and the core indicator for the Federal Reserve's June policy decision, directly setting the tone for this week's crypto market trend.

The core logic summarized in one sentence:
Non-farm data → Fed rate expectations → USD and US bonds → Cryptocurrency valuation.
The current market has basically extinguished expectations of rate cuts this year; this round of market movement is essentially an asymmetric risk game.

Three scenarios fully pre-judged

1. Significantly above expectations · Hawkish bearish
New jobs > 100k, unemployment rate < 4.2%, wage growth surpassing expectations, will completely lock in the possibility of rate cuts, and may even trigger rate hike pricing.
USD and US bonds rally, mainstream coins plunge in the short term, bulls face a stampede, and altcoins fall much more than mainstream coins.

2. In line with expectations · Neutral fluctuation
New jobs 62,000-67k, unemployment rate 4.2%-4.3%, wages in line with market consensus, no change in Fed's cautious stance.
Crypto maintains range-bound oscillation, only short-term spikes followed by a return to technical levels, no trend-driven movement, funds rotate into sector hotspots.

3. Significantly below expectations · Dovish bullish
New jobs < 40k, unemployment rate > 4.4%, wage growth below expectations, reigniting market expectations for rate cuts.
USD and US bonds decline, mainstream coins surge in the short term, short squeeze boosts the trend, and small to mid-cap coins and hot topics rise across the board.

Key points to watch

① Data priority: Average hourly earnings > Unemployment rate > New jobs, wages have a much greater impact on inflation and policy than mere employment figures.
② Beware of revisions: If the March initial figure of 178k is significantly revised downward, it will directly offset the market impact of this data.
③ Market rhythm: The first hour after data release is an extreme volatility period, prone to both long and short traps; the true trend is only confirmed after 4 hours of clearing positions.