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Morning Outlook:
Exercise caution when shorting entry timing: The current price (79751) has approached the intraday low of 79461.5 and the first support level of 79440.93.
Aggressive traders may consider entering short positions on a rebound to around 80000-80241 (the convergence zone of MA5/MA10 and the first resistance level), and when a stalling bullish candlestick pattern appears (such as an upper shadow or bearish engulfing), with a small position.
If the price directly breaks below 79400 with increased volume, consider chasing the short, but be aware of false breakout risks.
Stop-loss setup:
Set the stop-loss between 80600-80800 (near the MA20 and intraday high), approximately 1%-1.5% above the entry point.
Given the ATR (391.25) indicating volatility, this stop-loss range is reasonable.
Target prices:
The first target is near the lower Bollinger Band at 79180; if broken, the second target is at the key support of 78640 (S3).
From an entry around 80200, the potential return rate to 79180 is about 1.3%; to 78640, about 2%.
Although it hasn't fully reached the 5% expectation, in the current sideways and slightly bearish pattern, the risk-reward ratio is acceptable (about 1:1 to 1:2).
If the market successfully breaks below 78640, hold the short position for a larger decline.