Market Overview on May 8: Peaceful expectations eased, ARM was pushed back by the supply chain, Bitcoin held its ground at $80K

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: The First Day of Rotation After a Historic High

On Thursday, the market woke up from Wednesday’s celebration and found that one sheet of paper still hadn’t been signed.

The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,337.02, the Nasdaq dropped 0.13% to 25,806.20, and the Dow slid 313.62 points (-0.63%) to close at 49,597.17. The Russell 2000 fell 1.74%, the steepest drop among the four major indices. On the first day after small caps hit a historic high, profit-taking became the main target.

The decline itself wasn’t large, but it signaled something in terms of direction: the “peace premium” from Wednesday has already been partially given back.

The catalyst came from Iran. On Thursday morning, a senior Iranian official told The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz with an “unrealistic plan,” and Iran will not allow the U.S. to get away without paying war reparations. This statement directly cooled the narrative of Wednesday’s oil-price plunge. Brent crude continued to fall that day, closing at $97.93 (-3.34%); WTI closed at $91.73 (-3.52%), remaining below $100 for a second consecutive day, but the specific timeline for the peace process still remained a question mark.

On the same day, good news and bad news came together. Iran also said it is reviewing a 14-point proposal submitted by the U.S., and it would preview that an official response would be provided through Pakistani intermediaries. This is a signal that negotiations have not been fully terminated, but the distance between “reviewing” and “reaching an agreement” can be huge.

After Thursday ended, another small-scale clash occurred overnight: three U.S. destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and were attacked by Iran, after which the U.S. immediately carried out a self-defense retaliation. Both sides insisted on their own versions. The U.S. Central Command said it was an “unprovoked attack” by Iran, while Iran said it was a response to the U.S.’ “reckless actions.” There were no reports of casualties, but WTI futures rose by about 2% that night, reclaiming $93 and pushing Brent back above $100.

The $27 drop in oil prices from Wednesday is now being negotiated back—step by step.

The semiconductor sector took a collective break today. The SOX Index dipped slightly; AMD digested the gains from the past two days, while both Nvidia and Intel saw modest adjustments. Just after Wedbush said yesterday that “the CPU stole the headlines,” the market took a day to price in and digest that narrative. This is not a trend reversal, but normal technical consolidation—after all, the SOX Index has rebounded more than 50% from its March lows, and any sector at this level needs to take a breather.

The worst performer by name today was ARM.

ARM’s wall: Explosive demand, but not enough wafers

ARM Holdings released its Q4 earnings after the market closed on Wednesday. Revenue and profit both beat expectations. Orders for major customers of AGI CPUs (confirmed by Meta and OpenAI) seemed to point to a rosy picture. The stock rose at one point in pre-market trading, then quickly turned lower after the market opened, and ultimately fell 7.3% on the day.

The reason can be summed up in one sentence: during the earnings call, ARM admitted that the additional $1 billion in demand brought by AGI CPUs currently does not have enough wafer production capacity to meet it.

This is the most real “wall” in the entire AI chip industry. It isn’t that demand has a problem; it’s that supply can’t keep up. TSMC’s advanced-process capacity is fully booked for 2026. Orders from Nvidia, AMD, and Apple are occupying the top tier. ARM’s newly entered AGI CPU business needs to squeeze out room within an already saturated capacity allocation system. The anxiety revealed on the call was: “We know where the money is, but we can’t get that much capacity this year.”

This is also why the line of ongoing negotiations between Apple and Intel about chip foundry services is worth continuous tracking. Samsung and Intel’s advanced processes are becoming the few choices besides TSMC that can absorb large orders. During this AI Capex boom, the industry’s capacity bottleneck has shifted from “insufficient demand” in the past to a new “scarcity of supply.” This represents a fundamental structural change in the industry.

McDonald’s (MCD) was one of the rare bright spots on Thursday. Q1 earnings per share were $2.83, beating expectations of $2.75. Global same-store sales grew 3.8%, and U.S. same-store sales continued to rise for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 3.9%. CFO Ian Borden said something worth noting during the call: “Lower-income consumers are indeed under pressure, but they still choose McDonald’s. That’s why we’re working so hard to prove that we offer choices with real value.” This line is a snapshot of the 2026 U.S. consumer landscape: $4.53 per gallon gasoline prices are pushing the most vulnerable consumer groups toward the cheapest options.

After Thursday’s close, two earnings reports went in completely opposite directions.

Datadog (DDOG) was the biggest positive surprise of the day: both Q1 revenue and profit beat expectations, and full-year guidance was raised sharply to $4.3-$4.34 billion, far above analysts’ consensus of $40.9 billion. The stock surged more than 30% after hours, setting a six-year record for the largest single-day gain. Datadog’s logic is straightforward: cloud monitoring and AI security are becoming an indispensable line item in every company’s Capex plan. As AI systems become more numerous and complex, the tools to monitor them actually start generating profits earlier than AI itself.

Coinbase (COIN) was the biggest negative surprise of the day: Q1 net loss, mainly because the crypto market fell sharply during Q1, trading volume shrank, and fee revenue plunged. This is a bitter irony behind today’s Bitcoin action. On-chain Bitcoin has climbed to $82,000, but in the exchange’s Q1 books, it records that darkest stretch: the $62,000 bottom, three months of sideways trading, institutional buying continuing, and retail gradually exiting in silence.

Oil and Gold: Is $97.93 a temporary low, or a trend turning point?

Brent closing below $100 for two consecutive days has made the market feel like “half of the peace trade has already been completed.” But the clashes overnight on Thursday cast that feeling into doubt.

JPMorgan analysts this week provided the most specific supply-loss number so far: closing the Strait of Hormuz leads to a daily loss of about 13 million barrels of oil supply globally. That figure is roughly 12%-13% of global daily demand. U.S. EIA inventory data shows that the release pace of U.S. strategic reserves is still accelerating, trying to offset part of the impact in the domestic market, but this is a war of attrition tool, not a sustainable solution.

Gold held around $4,718-$4,720 on Thursday. It pulled back slightly, but still stayed in a relatively strong zone above $4,700. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up modestly to 4.37%. The market has been swinging between “peace expectations → rate cut expectations” and “clashes continuing → inflation concerns.”

Cryptocurrency: $80K held, but $81,486 is the real battlefield

On Thursday, Bitcoin retreated from the previous day’s high of $82,000. As Iranian officials delivered hardline remarks and news of the overnight clashes came out one after another, it briefly fell to around $80,300 during the day, then closed in the $80,500-$80,800 range. The 24-hour drop was about 1.5%-2%.

$80,000 held.

But both CoinGecko’s on-chain analysis data and CryptoQuant’s report point to the same key level: $81,486, the average cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders over the past 155 days. Historically, this price has been the dividing line between bulls and bears. If the market closes above it, it means short-term holders as a whole move into unrealized gains, reducing sell pressure; if it breaks below it, short-term holders face a collective stop-loss. Added to the 200-day moving average at $82,228, these two numbers form Bitcoin’s tightest and most concentrated resistance band right now.

Ethereum was around $2,350-$2,380 that day, and Solana was around $84. Major coins followed Bitcoin with slight pullbacks. The global total crypto market cap stayed in the $2.67-$2.70 trillion range, and the Fear & Greed Index stayed near 55 (neutral but leaning optimistic). Compared with last week’s panic zone below 40, it has improved significantly.

There is also one signal the market hasn’t paid much attention to today: Airbnb’s after-hours earnings report showed Q1 bookings were “particularly strong,” with an upward revision to its full-year revenue forecast, but it also pointed out that the Middle East market has been suppressed due to the conflict. This is a direct micro-level validation of the “peace dividend” logic: war doesn’t just affect oil prices—it also affects people’s willingness to travel around the world and their actual booking behavior. When the war truly ends, this suppressed demand will become a driver for a catch-up upswing on the consumer side.

Today’s summary: a brief pullback—waiting for the non-farm payrolls to deal the last card of the week

On May 7, after reaching record highs, the market went through a technical consolidation. The direction was mild, but the underlying logic is quietly changing.

U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 7,337.02 (-0.38%), the Nasdaq at 25,806.20 (-0.13%), the Dow fell 313 points (-0.63%), and the Russell 2000 fell 1.74%. Profit-taking dominated, with no material negative catalysts. ARM fell 7.3% intraday (AGI CPU supply bottleneck), McDonald’s rose 3.3% (lower-income consumers are still eating the McChicken). After hours, Datadog surged 30% (full-year guidance far exceeded), and Coinbase reported losses (crypto market sluggish in Q1).

Oil/Gold: Brent closed at $97.93, WTI at $91.73—both below $100 for two days—but after overnight clashes, futures rebounded, and Brent returned above $100. Iran is “reviewing” the 14-point proposal, but at the same time says “the U.S. must pay compensation.” Gold is holding around $4,718.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin fell from $82,000 to close at $80,500-$80,800, holding above $80,000. $81,486 (short-term holder cost basis) is the most critical technical pressure point right now. A break through it means a long signal; failing to hold it implies a short-term top.

Only one question today: what will the non-farm payrolls data be?

Market expectations are 55,000 new jobs in April and an unemployment rate of 4.5%. If the numbers come in close to expectations, the labor-market drag from the Iran war will be clearly confirmed, and the Fed’s policy room could unexpectedly open. Weak employment plus stable inflation—already stabilizing—could reignite rate-cut expectations, which would be positive for both the stock market and Bitcoin. If the numbers come in unexpectedly strong (for example, above 100,000), it would indicate that the labor market’s resilience remains intact. In that case, the Fed may continue to hold steady or even consider rate hikes, putting pressure on high-valuation sectors.

Two outcomes, two completely different market reactions. Today’s non-farm payroll report is the final card of the week.