May 7th, Bitcoin's recent rebound from around $60k to $83k, nearly 40%, is a technical correction within a bear market, not a trend reversal; currently, the $82.5k—$84k range is close to the top, and subsequent movements are likely to be volatile downward, breaking previous lows, with the final drop completing the bear market before a true reversal occurs. The following is a detailed analysis from four aspects: core logic, technical basis, historical analogy, and trading suggestions:

1. Core judgment: Bear market rebound, not the start of a bull market
1. Long-term stance unchanged: Although this rebound is strong (from $60k to $83k, nearly 40%), it is defined as a healthy technical correction within a bear market, not the beginning of a main upward wave.
2. Lack of major volume surge signals: The market is gradually rising with consolidation, no short-term large bullish candles, and no obvious continuous influx of major funds, which does not meet the characteristics of a main upward wave.
3. Market sentiment features: Short squeeze and shakeout: Typical of a bear market clearing out the short positions—consolidating upward, continuously making new highs, forcing short sellers to stop out, causing long and short swings, ultimately inducing more longs and turning the market bullish, consistent with the cyclical sentiment pattern at the end of a bear market.
2. Technical analysis: $82.5k—$84k is the top zone
1. Two-stage equal-distance rally (ABCD structure)
◦ The first rebound is approximately equal to the second (current) stage, targeting around $82.5k.
◦ Yesterday’s high of $82.7k precisely touched this zone.
2. Consolidation upward channel upper boundary
◦ Price is rising slowly along the channel; yesterday’s high just touched the upper boundary, a typical resistance level.
3. Top signal features
◦ Although no clear reversal candlestick pattern, the combined resonance of space, channel, and sentiment strongly suggests proximity to the top.
◦ Extreme rallying only reaches around $84k, representing the last chance for bears to reduce positions.
3. Historical analogy: Bear market structure replication, previous lows likely to be broken
1. Historical rebound comparison: The last bear market bottom also saw a 43% rebound (close to this round’s 40%), also a consolidation upward, but the market still broke below previous lows afterward, completing the final dip before bottoming out and reversing.
2. Reversal prerequisites: Double test of previous lows + capitulation of longs
◦ True reversal requires bottoming + a second test of lows + long liquidation + capitulation of chips.
◦ This process has not yet been completed, so the previous lows are likely to be broken, indicating a third wave downward in the bear market.
4. Trading suggestions: Cautiously go long, prioritize waiting on the right side
1. Spot trading: Never chase highs
◦ Buying at current prices yields an unbalanced risk-reward: 50% upside potential versus over 30% downside retracement, not worth risking; better to miss the top than chase it.
2. Short-term trading: Only buy on dips, strictly control risk
◦ During rebounds, attempt short-term longs on pullbacks, but exit quickly; avoid holding long-term.
3. Bear positions: Wait for minor cycle reversal signals
◦ Do not blindly short at high levels to avoid repeated stop-outs.
◦ Focus on reversal candlestick patterns, volume, and capital flow in the $82.5k—$84k range; only after signals appear, consider medium- to long-term short positions.
Summary
The current market is at the final stage of a bear market rebound, with the $82,500—$84k zone serving as a strong resistance top area. The long-term cycle still lacks reversal conditions; subsequent movements are likely to be volatile downward, breaking previous lows and completing the last dip of the bear market. In terms of trading, observe spot positions, look for quick long signals, and wait for short signals, avoiding being induced by short-term new highs, and adhere to the long-term bear market mindset.