On May 7th, Bitcoin's current rebound from around 60k to 83k, nearly 40%, is a technical correction within a bear market, not a trend reversal; the current range of 82.5k–84k is close to the top, and subsequent movements are likely to be volatile downward, breaking previous lows, with the final drop completing the bear market before a true reversal. The following is a detailed analysis from four aspects: core logic, technical basis, historical analogy, and trading suggestions:

1. Core judgment: Bear market rebound, not the start of a bull market
1. Long-term stance unchanged: Although this rebound is strong (60k → 83k, nearly 40% increase), it is defined as a healthy technical correction within a bear market, not the beginning of a main upward wave.
2. Lack of major volume surge signals: The market is gradually rising with consolidation, no short-term large bullish candles, and no obvious continuous influx of major funds, which does not meet the characteristics of a main upward wave.
3. Market sentiment features: Short squeeze and shakeout: Typical of a bear market clearing out the short positions—consolidation upward, constantly reaching new highs, forcing short sellers to stop-loss, causing long-short oscillation, ultimately inducing bullish sentiment, consistent with the cyclical pattern at the end of a bear market.
2. Technical analysis: 82.5k–84k is the top zone
1. Two-stage equal-distance rise (ABCD structure)
◦ The first rebound is approximately equal to the second (current) stage, targeting around 82.5k.
◦ Yesterday’s high of 82.7k precisely touched this zone.
2. Upper boundary of the consolidation channel
◦ Price moves slowly along the channel upward, with yesterday’s high just touching the upper boundary, a typical resistance level.
3. Top signal features
◦ Although no clear reversal candlestick pattern, the combined resonance of space, channel, and sentiment strongly suggests proximity to the top.
◦ The extreme rally only reaches around 84k, representing the last opportunity for bears to reduce positions.
3. Historical analogy: Bear market structure replication, previous lows likely to be broken
1. Historical rebound comparison: The last bear market bottom also saw a 43% rebound (close to this round’s 40%), also a consolidation upward, but the price still broke below the previous low afterward, completing the final dip before bottoming out and reversing.
2. Reversal prerequisites: Double test of previous lows + capitulation and chip turnover
◦ True reversal requires bottoming + a second test of lows + capitulation of bulls + chip turnover.
◦ This process has not yet been completed, so the previous low is likely to be broken, indicating a third wave of decline in the bear market.
4. Trading suggestions: Cautiously go long, prioritize waiting on the right side
1. Spot trading: Never chase highs
◦ Buying at current prices results in an unbalanced risk-reward: 50% upside potential versus over 30% downside retracement, not worth risking; better to miss the top than chase it.
2. Short-term trading: Only buy on dips, strictly control risk
◦ During rebounds, attempt short-term longs on pullbacks, but exit quickly, avoid long-term holding.
3. Bear positions: Wait for minor cycle reversal signals
◦ Do not blindly short at high levels to avoid repeated stop-losses.
◦ Focus on reversal candlestick patterns, volume, and capital flow in the 82k–84k range; only after signals appear, consider medium- to long-term short positions.
Summary
The current market is at the final stage of a bear market rebound, with 82.5k–84k as a strong resistance top zone. The long-term cycle still lacks reversal conditions, and subsequent movements are likely to be volatile downward, breaking previous lows and completing the last dip of the bear market. In terms of trading, observe spot positions, look for quick long signals, and wait for short signals, avoiding being lured by short-term new highs, and adhere to the long-term bear market mindset.