Is the US-Iran ceasefire MOU about to be signed? Wall Street: Don’t rush to pop the champagne yet

What does the market resemble most recently?
Like the five minutes before a lottery draw.
Everyone is betting on the outcome.
But no one truly dares to go all in.
As news of the US-Iran ceasefire MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) becomes public, market risk appetite clearly heats up.
Many people have already started fantasizing:
Oil prices plummet.
Interest rate cuts accelerate.
BTC soars directly.
But the problem is:
Both sides’ statements are not fully unified.
Trump is wildly optimistic.
Iran is noticeably more cautious.
What does this mean?
It means that the current market rally isn’t actually based on reality.
But on:
Imagination.
Especially the oil market has been particularly sensitive lately.
Because over the past few weeks, geopolitical conflicts have pushed oil prices to high levels.
Now, as long as the words “ceasefire” appear, funds will frantically short oil prices.
But don’t forget:
The Middle East situation is best at bouncing back and forth.
Today talks. Tomorrow breaks off.
The day after, talks again.
So many smart funds currently aren’t fully risk-on.
They are chasing risk assets on the upside,
While secretly holding safe-haven positions.
Because what the market truly fears isn’t bad news.
It’s:
Celebrating too early, only to find out in the end that no deal was reached.
And BTC’s current position is the most awkward.
It benefits from peace expectations,
And also benefits from global uncertainty.
So recently, it’s often seen that:
Gold rises, BTC rises;
Tech stocks rise, BTC still rises.
The entire market no longer knows how to categorize it.
In one sentence:
Today’s BTC is like someone who wants to be both a tech stock and a safe-haven asset at the same time. #Gate广场五月交易分享