The closer the ceasefire agreement gets, the more the market fears? The real danger is "collapse of talks"

Many people think:
War is the most dangerous.
But veteran traders know:
The truly terrifying moment is often when "it's about to be agreed upon."
Because at this time, the market is most likely to:
Overestimate expectations.
Recently, news of the US and Iran approaching a ceasefire MOU has clearly made global markets optimistic.
Oil prices fall.
US stocks rise.
BTC begins to stir.
But here’s the problem.
Trump keeps emphasizing progress is smooth.
Iran, however, has not fully confirmed yet.
This "temperature difference" between both sides, instead, makes the market start to become tense.
Because what do capital markets fear most?
It's not bad news.
But:
Thinking there’s a big positive, and then it doesn’t materialize.
Especially now that risk assets have already reacted in advance.
If the negotiations get stuck on details later, the market could experience a sharp reversal.
At that point, the worst is often not the bears.
But:
The optimistic traders who chased the highs.
And BTC now looks especially like a "mood monster" caught in the middle.
Peace, it rises.
Risk, it may not fall through completely.
Because more and more funds are starting to see BTC as:
A global systemic risk hedge tool.
That’s also why it’s increasingly unlike traditional risk assets recently.
In one sentence:
The most dangerous thing in the market now is not war.
But:
Everyone is starting to believe "it won’t happen anymore."
#WCTC交易王PK