After the Iran-U.S. ceasefire MOU was exposed, why didn't oil prices crash? The answer is chilling upon closer thought.

According to normal logic:
Ceasefire news = oil prices plummet.
But recently, the market has shown a strange phenomenon.
Oil prices have retreated, but haven't completely collapsed.
Why?
Because the market actually doesn't fully believe it.
Trump has been repeatedly shouting "Signing soon," but Iran is clearly more restrained.
This kind of attitude alone indicates:
The two sides are still far from reaching a true consensus.
And what is the biggest problem in the capital markets now?
Preemptive overextension.
Many funds have already started betting:
Middle East risk decreases → oil prices fall back → inflation eases → rate cuts accelerate.
But this logical chain is currently built on:
"Agreement will definitely proceed smoothly."
The problem is.
What if negotiations break down later?
Then the entire market will instantly reprice.
Especially crude oil.
The recent pullback is essentially more about emotional recovery.
It's not that geopolitical risks have completely disappeared.
And Bitcoin's recent performance is even more interesting.
It’s increasingly like a "dual-faced asset."
When risk sentiment is good, it acts like tech stocks.
When risk aversion rises, it’s seen as digital gold.
So the market is actually very conflicted now.
Should we Risk On?
Or continue to play defense?
And the answer likely depends on:
Whether Iran will truly loosen up in the end. #BTC回调