The biggest feeling from observing the market over the past two weeks: if interest rates don't fall, don't pretend to be very brave with risk appetite. To put it simply, the cost of capital is right there, and when the risk-free return outside rises, those positions in crypto that hold the "waiting for narrative" mindset will be forced to become more selective, positions naturally lighten, and leverage becomes easier to back off from... I myself am like that, the closer we get to macro data or meetings, the less I want to hold on, preferring to earn a little less.

In the group, people are still circulating screenshots of "a certain stablecoin losing its peg" or "regulation about to hit," and as soon as emotions rise, everyone just shares and curses. Later, I realized that what really influences my decision to reduce positions are things with timestamps like reserve audit update times, on-chain redemption/minting rhythms, and exchange net inflows; baseless rumors are just noise, don’t let them guide your positions. Anyway, my current principle is: when macro is tight, control exposure; for stablecoins, wait for data before getting angry.