#Gate广场五月交易分享 A Little Reflection

When we focus on changes in the geopolitical strategic landscape, we often think more about shifts in the international situation and the relationships between countries. But now that the world has developed to this point, if we always look at the US, the Philippines, Japan, and so on, it’s actually very difficult to fully and accurately describe this “unprecedented great change in a century.” Because many things are just wearing a “human skin,” while internally they are long hollow.
American economist Jeffrey Sachs said a few days ago, and actually Putin has said this before. He said: Any country that has US military bases on its territory is not a sovereign nation.
When we open our phones now and see all descriptions of how countries relate to each other, our brains tend to oversimplify the connections behind the scenes—things like the Five Eyes alliance, AUKUS. But in fact, it’s easy to see only the trees and not the forest. For example, today Japan’s stock market hit a new high again. When you look at all the analyses, they will find a bunch of reasons—technology, the Middle East, exchange rates. But they always analyze from the perspective that Japan has no complete economic sovereignty. It’s like no one analyzes why Switzerland is no longer a neutral country; people often dislike poverty and love wealth, ignoring history.
After capitalism developed into financial monopoly capitalism, its control over the world changed form. In the past, it had to control by overthrowing governments, like in Latin America, but that was costly. Controlling through industrial capital invasion reduced costs significantly. After evolving into financial monopoly capitalism, it became much easier.
Because everyone loves money, and it’s difficult to control greed.
Capitalism exploits human nature’s evil, with tens of thousands of financial derivatives, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, using interest rate hikes and cuts, balance sheet expansion and contraction, to make money flow back to the US worldwide. So, the US and the dollar are not just about the United States of America; they are the ultimate paradise for many profit-driven groups around the world.
Whether it’s the Philippines, Congo, Ukraine, or Russia, the wealthiest parts of these countries are actually directly or indirectly controlled by the US.
If your money is in the US, your heart can’t be in your own country.
When a Middle East war breaks out, the first to be affected are the Middle Eastern regions, and all that money flows to the US. The second is the euro; Europe was already suffering from high inflation due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and now the Strait of Hormuz has made it worse.
We watch Trump drawing candlestick charts and blame it on him personally. But it’s not that simple. Behind him are oil capital, right-wing tech, Wall Street—though they have conflicts, they harvest the world together through huge disparities. From the tide of the dollar to the dollar’s volatility, Western capitalism has now evolved into a global greed system. Because it cannot satisfy its own demand for excess profits, it inevitably changes the status quo through foreign wars or even internal self-destruction, and this is not subject to individual will. Trump is just more transparent; what’s the difference between Pelosi, Obama, Hillary?
Financial warfare has actually become the main form behind all wars. For example, tariffs are to solve the White House’s fiscal revenue issues; tech wars are to monopolize high-tech profits; Venezuela and Iran are to control oil. But playing too much financial warfare is like drinking poison to quench thirst—eventually, they will only play with money, unable to produce ships or ammunition.
The current financial markets are relatively predictable. The scripts predicted before still have some time for good days in the US stock market. Of course, the pullbacks won’t be collapses or implosions; they have many tricks to change the rules. But from a trend perspective, this is what Marxist political economy calls the “self-destruction” of capitalism.
Now, global debt has entered an irreversible stage. The Middle East war initiated by the US looks like a geopolitical and civilizational war, but it is also a financial war. It always combines multiple objectives, not just a single form.
Caitong Securities’ report gives a straightforward answer: the relationship between war and the long bull market in US stocks is not opposition but more of a symbiosis. Since becoming the world’s largest economy at the end of the 19th century, the US has gained substantial benefits from most wars, except the Vietnam War. From seizing Spanish colonies in the Spanish-American War, to making huge profits in both World Wars, to the Gulf War and subsequent small conflicts over oil resources, the US has transitioned from “war participant” to “war initiator.”
The reaction path of US stocks amid gunfire is also clear: before WWII and earlier, wars mainly impacted the market through emotional shocks; since the Korean War, this direct effect has gradually weakened, and wars more often influence stocks through economic channels like inflation, oil prices, fiscal deficits, etc.
The Vietnam War is America’s only “loss-making” war and profoundly rewrote its war logic.
Since then, almost all conflicts initiated by the US have had three features: short duration, small scope, and centered around oil—yet all ultimately achieved their goals.
So, do you still think it’s because of Trump’s personal reasons? At least, most media now blame him personally, rather than imperialism or capitalism. We seem to rarely mention capitalism anymore, deliberately blurring ideological distinctions. Personally, I think we lack in-depth research on how global capital operates, how it coordinates and controls other countries among allied nations. As a result, our judgments often focus on international political events, rather than analyzing the underlying influencing factors.
In summary, the response of US stocks to war has followed a clear evolutionary path: from “emotion-driven” to “economic transmission.” Early wars directly shook the market through victory or defeat news; after the Korean War, the stock market increasingly focused on fiscal expansion, inflation expectations, oil price fluctuations, and monetary policies. War itself is no longer the reason for market rises or falls; how war affects growth and costs is what the market truly prices. Besides Western civilization, Islamic civilization, and Middle Eastern geopolitical factors, the mix of capital, technology, and their organizational bodies are the key forces controlling global political trends.
The contest for AI sovereignty is also about building future digital sovereignty—if currency loses its meaning, and computing power and energy become trading commodities, sovereignty will also change. Currently, we only have a relative advantage in military strength. There’s still a long way to go in understanding these aspects. Think about it: if even recognizing and understanding them is so difficult, it also shows that their hidden capabilities, order-constructing abilities, influence, and understanding and controlling human nature are beyond what ordinary people can imagine. But the only thing we know for sure is its weakness—greed. And greed inevitably leads to war and madness.
Chinese people are kind; we are people-centered, advocating for harmony and unity, not centered on capital. That is the core difference. But after Marx, it seems few have deeply studied Western capitalism anymore; most are just ideologically aligned writers debating and explaining. Ideas are the sharpest weapons in this world; our original intention is the shield to resist darkness and temptation, determining how far we can go and where we are headed. No matter how clever the arguments, if we cannot control our greed, we will inevitably fall into chaos and entropy.