The CIA estimates that Iran can sustain itself for three to four months under a blockade, and its ballistic missile capability remains preserved.

Mars Finance News, May 7 — Four sources familiar with the matter said that this week, the CIA’s confidential analysis concluded that Iran can sustain itself for at least three to four months under a U.S. naval blockade before facing more severe economic difficulties. Despite weeks of intense bombing by the U.S., Iran still retains a sizable ballistic missile capability. One U.S. official said that Iran currently still retains about 75% of its pre-war mobile launcher inventory, as well as about 70% of its missile stockpiles. Evidence shows that the Iranian regime has been able to restore and reactivate almost all underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war broke out.

Another U.S. official said he believes Iran’s ability to withstand prolonged economic difficulties is even greater than the CIA’s assessment. “The Iranian leadership has become more radical, more resolute, and increasingly believes it can exhaust the U.S.’s political will while, through domestic repression, preventing any resistance. This is not uncommon for regimes to maintain power for years under long-term sanctions and a war of purely aerial strikes.”

Iran is storing some of its oil on tankers that would otherwise be idle due to the blockade, while also reducing output from oil fields to ensure that oil wells remain operational. If Iran can smuggle oil overland, the CIA may have underestimated Iran’s economic resilience.