Everyone celebrating this 35% bounce off the February lows like the bear market is officially over and I genuinely need you to understand how dangerous that thinking is.


In 2018 BTC rallied 35% off the June lows and the entire timeline was calling the bottom, only for it to drop another 50% into November and destroy everyone who got comfortable. In 2022, the same thing happened with the June to August relief rally before FTX came along and flushed everything to 16K.
Relief rallies inside bear markets don't just feel like the real thing, they're designed to feel like the real thing, because the market needs confident buyers to provide exit liquidity for the smart money that's been accumulating lower.
I'm not saying this bounce is fake but I am saying that if your entire thesis is "number went up so bear must be over" then you haven't studied what happened to the people who said that exact sentence in every previous cycle.
BTC-1.53%
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