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The United States seems to be changing its negotiation strategy, and the current goal is not a comprehensive peace agreement.
Mars Finance News, on May 7th, the current goal for the US and Iran is a Memorandum of Understanding rather than a comprehensive peace agreement, indicating that both sides still have disagreements and that any agreement at this stage will be a transitional step. The US government seems to be changing its negotiation strategy, which is to simplify the negotiation agenda, discuss simpler issues first, and address the most contentious issues at a later stage. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before May 15th is 34%, before May 31st is 47%, and before June 30th is 59%.