I saw an interesting observation circulating from an analyst at Kryptanium Capital about what is happening in the markets. Essentially, in April, there was a quite pronounced divergence between the VIX and Brent futures that did not go unnoticed.

The curious thing is that while the VIX was signaling one thing, oil was signaling another. According to circulating analyses, all of this is related to the resilience that the S&P 500 has continued to show. In short, the American index held up well despite the turbulence.

But here comes the interesting point: this situation has been described as a 'fat tail risk,' meaning we are in territory where extreme and unexpected movements can occur. This is not the first time we've seen it — at the end of January and February, the VIX and other volatility indicators had already caused some tremors in global markets.

The analyst suggests that we might be close to a third shock of this kind. It would not be at all surprising if it happens soon. It’s one of those moments where paying close attention to the signals that the VIX and other indicators are sending us becomes really important. It’s worth keeping an eye on the situation.