Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: what exactly governs the cycle of bull and bear markets in the crypto world? After reviewing historical data, I found there’s actually some interesting patterns behind it.

Based on past trends, Bitcoin essentially operates on a four-year cycle. The intervals between the peaks of bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021 reveal a pattern. Moreover, each halving event is accompanied by a clear switch between bull and bear markets. This cyclical behavior is not a coincidence but the result of repeated interactions between market participants’ behavior and supply-demand dynamics.

Specifically, bull markets usually last relatively short periods, about six months to a year, but the gains are often astonishing. I remember when Bitcoin broke $20k in 2017, social media was all shouting “to the moon,” investor confidence was sky-high, and stories of overnight riches were everywhere. In contrast, bear markets tend to be longer and more torturous, possibly lasting two years or more. The bear market from 2018 to 2019 saw Bitcoin drop from its high to a few thousand dollars, with the market bleak, many projects shutting down, and investor confidence thoroughly shattered.

However, this bull and bear cycle isn’t fixed. Policy environments, global economic conditions, and institutional capital flows all influence the specific duration. For example, the timing of institutional entry, the progress of whale accumulation, and even technical events like halving can trigger market sentiment shifts. I’ve noticed that when a large number of retail investors rush in and market FOMO reaches extreme levels, it often signals that the bull market is about to top out. At that point, whales and institutions usually start quietly distributing their holdings.

Looking at the past two halvings, Bitcoin has gained over ten times in value each time, with an average of about 33 months needed to trigger a new bull run. Following this cycle, each halving acts as a key catalyst for a bull market. The alternation between bull and bear markets is like the tide rising and falling—normal market behavior.

In this volatile market, the key is to stay rational. Be cautious of over-investing during bull runs, and patient during bear markets, waiting for opportunities. The cycle of bull and bear markets is an eternal theme; understanding its mechanics helps better manage investment timing. Market fluctuations are inevitable—time and strength are the best weapons. Believe that truly valuable projects will find opportunities in every cycle, ultimately leading to steady returns.