#Gate广场五月交易分享 #美股加密概念股走强 Stop clinging to the old almanac! The four-year halving is dead; Bitcoin is thoroughly "stock market-like"

Las Vegas, crowds surging. Forty thousand elites gather, but they are holding a "funeral" for one thing: the once-effective "four-year halving cycle" that lasted over a decade, officially coming to an end.
Stop fantasizing about carving boats to seek swords; Bitcoin's gameplay has changed.
The era of carving boats to seek swords is over
Golden sunlight in Las Vegas sweeps over the Bitcoin 2026 conference, and the noise of forty thousand people masks a heavy conclusion: the once-dominant "four-year halving cycle" in the crypto market has officially been swept into the dustbin of history. This summit is no longer a geek’s carnival but a coronation for capital. Wall Street investment banks are pouring in one after another, regulators are present in full force, and giants are smashing the old measuring sticks with trillions of dollars. In this power shift, Bitcoin is undergoing a fierce personality reshaping.
For a long time, the halving cycle was the only "Bible" for retail investors: reward halving, supply contraction, and a sharp rise in coin prices. But now, this logic appears pale and powerless in front of massive institutional buying.
Wall Street knocks on the door, ETFs swallow supply. Currently, the holdings of spot ETFs in the US stock market have surpassed 800k coins, and this rigid demand acts like a giant pump, instantly draining the slight reduction brought by halving. When institutional holdings rise from 10% to 25%, the market’s pricing power has shifted. Capital no longer dances with emotions but steadily fills the valleys according to asset allocation logic. The supply-demand gap created by halving has long been hedged out through long-term institutional strategies.
The "chronic death" of volatility
We must accept a fact: the wild surges and crashes are coming to an end; Bitcoin is becoming "stock market-like." In the past, Bitcoin was like a runaway wild horse, with halving as its stimulant and liquidations as its epitaph. Now, with the global macro landscape changing fundamentally, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies have replaced block rewards as the market’s guiding indicator. Bitcoin’s safe-haven attributes are being fully reinforced, and its trend is beginning to align with the century-long bull market of the US stock market—center of gravity moving upward, volatility gradually converging, and bottoms steadily rising.
This shift, while depriving short-term traders of quick profits, grants the asset deeper certainty.
Why is halving no longer effective?
Diminishing effects. The stimulative power of halving has been halved each cycle, and the market has already priced it in.
Attribute upgrade. Bitcoin has shed its niche speculative status and is now aligning with the US stock market, competing directly with gold.
Center of gravity rising. Volatility is converging, and the price center is moving higher. The old tragedies of "crashing 80% at a time" are unlikely to recur. Instead, we see a "long bull, slow rise" like in the US stock market. Occasional 20% dips are just the institutions’ tickets for new investors.
Cycle fragmentation, a long bull emerging
Not everyone is immersed in the illusion of eternal rise. Even in Las Vegas, cautious voices still echo: if the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts fall short of expectations, or if strategic reserve policies fail, systemic risks will still arrive as scheduled.
But the foundation of consensus has been solidified: the kind of brutal bear market that saw multiple halving crashes in 2022 is now extremely unlikely to recur. The market is bidding farewell to the primitive phase of "fast bull, fast bear" and entering a new ultra-long cycle of slow oscillations. A long-term expedition into global credit value has officially begun.
A few pieces of advice for investors:
Don’t wait for a big drop. The historic bear market is a thing of the past; waiting for an "epic bottom" will only lead to missed opportunities.
Keep an eye on indicators. The halving’s positive effects have faded; future market direction depends on closely watching Federal Reserve interest rates and ETF net inflows.
Asset allocation is king. Maintain a solid long-term position, and let short-term fluctuations happen naturally.
Stop clinging to the old almanac
The wheel of history keeps turning forward; clinging to the "halving myth" will only cause you to fall behind the times. Bitcoin’s logic has been reconstructed: the old cycle is dead, and a new long bull has arrived.
In this new era of institutional pricing, buying on dips and long-term dollar-cost averaging replace gambler-style all-in bets. Las Vegas has not provided shortcuts to wealth; it simply calmly tells the world: Bitcoin has grown up, and it no longer needs that four-year crutch.