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A conservative scenario suggests that a “quantum day” for Bitcoin could arrive in 2042, while the most aggressive outlook points to 2030, analysts reported.
Cryptocurrency infrastructure is more vulnerable than traditional finance: banks regularly update keys and use access recovery mechanisms, whereas owners of crypto wallets can keep assets at the same address for years, Project Eleven noted.
Analysts outlined several possible attack scenarios for quantum computers. The most likely one, according to experts, involves hacking the public keys of Bitcoin and Ethereum using Shor’s algorithm, which would make it possible to recover the private key and gain access to wallet holders’ funds. The risk is especially high for old and inactive addresses whose public keys have already been exposed on the blockchain. Other scenarios mentioned include forging digital signatures and attacking multi-signature wallets.
Project Eleven experts discussed the “collect now — use later” model. Its essence is that malicious actors can already today store public data and digital signatures for use after powerful quantum computers emerge. The study also paid special attention to stablecoins. The authors believe that one of the main objectives of potential attacks could be the administrative keys of the USDT and USDC contracts.
The authors of the study compared the development of quantum technologies to the AI boom. In their view, years of gradual progress could lead to a sudden technological leap with virtually no prior warning for the market. Project Eleven believes that the main problem is no longer fundamental science, but rather scaling quantum systems and their practical deployment.
Previously, independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli used a publicly available quantum computer to crack a 15-bit elliptic-curve key—the mathematical foundation of digital signature schemes that secure the networks of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most blockchains.