#GateSquareMayTradingShare #Gate广场五月交易分享 A Little Reflection

#Gate广场五月交易分享 A Little Reflection

When we focus on changes in the geopolitical landscape, we often think more about shifts in international situations and relations between countries. But now, as the world develops, if we always look at the relationship between nations—how the U.S. is doing, how the Philippines is doing, how Japan is doing—it’s actually very difficult to fully and accurately describe this “unprecedented great change in a century.” Because many things are just wearing a “human skin,” while internally they are long since hollow.

U.S. economist Jeffrey Sachs said a few days ago, and actually Putin has said this before. He said: Any country that has U.S. military bases on its soil is not a sovereign nation.

When we open our phones now and see descriptions of how countries relate to each other, our brains tend to simplify the hidden connections between them—things like the Five Eyes alliance, AUKUS. But in fact, it’s easy to see only the trees and miss the forest. For example, today Japan’s stock market hit a new high again. When you look at all the analyses, they’ll find a bunch of reasons—technology, the Middle East, exchange rates. But they always analyze from the perspective that Japan has no complete economic sovereignty. It’s like no one analyzes why Switzerland is no longer neutral; people often dislike poverty and love wealth, ignoring history.

After capitalism develops into financial monopoly capitalism, its control over the world has changed form. In the past, it had to control through regime overthrow, like in Latin America, but that was costly. Controlling through invading industries and capital reduced costs. After evolving into financial monopoly capitalism, it became much easier.
Because everyone loves money, and controlling greed is difficult.
Capitalism exploits human nature’s evil, with tens of thousands of financial derivatives, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, using interest rate hikes, rate cuts, quantitative easing, and tightening to make money flow back to the U.S. So, the U.S. and the dollar are not just about the United States of America; they are the ultimate paradise for many profit-driven groups worldwide.
Whether it’s the Philippines, Congo, Ukraine, or Russia, their wealthiest individuals are actually directly or indirectly controlled by the U.S.

If your money is in the U.S., your heart can’t be in your own country.
When the Middle East war breaks out, the first to be affected are the Middle Eastern regions, as that money flows into the U.S. second, the euro, which was already suffering from high inflation due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is now further strained by the Strait of Hormuz.

We watch Trump drawing candlestick charts and blame it on him personally. But it’s not that simple. Behind him are oil capital, right-wing tech, Wall Street—though they have conflicts, they harvest the world together through huge disparities. From the tide of the dollar to its震荡, Western capitalism has now evolved into a global greed system. Because it cannot satisfy its own demand for excess profits, it inevitably changes the status quo through foreign wars or even internal self-destruction, and this is not subject to individual will. Trump is just more transparent; what’s the difference between Pelosi, Obama, Hillary now?

Financial warfare has actually become the main form behind all wars. For example, tariffs are to solve the U.S. Treasury’s revenue issues; technology wars are to monopolize high-tech profits; Venezuela and Iran are controlled over oil. But playing with financial warfare too much is like drinking poison to quench thirst—eventually, they only play with money, and can’t produce ships or ammunition anymore.
The current financial markets are still somewhat predictable. The scripts predicted before still suggest that U.S. stocks will have a good period ahead. Of course, the pullback won’t necessarily mean collapse or a collapse inward; they have many tricks to change the rules. But from a trend perspective, this is what Marxist political economy calls the “self-destruction” of capitalism.

Today, global debt has entered an irreversible stage. The Middle East war initiated by the U.S. looks like a geopolitical and civilizational war, but it is also a financial war. It always combines multiple objectives, not just a single form.
Caitong Securities’ report gives a straightforward answer: the relationship between war and the long bull market in U.S. stocks is not opposition but more of a symbiosis. Since becoming the world’s largest economy at the end of the 19th century, the U.S. has gained substantial benefits from almost every war except the Vietnam War. From the Spanish-American War’s acquisition of colonies, to making huge profits in both World Wars, to the Gulf War and subsequent small conflicts over oil resources, the U.S. has transformed from a “war participant” to a “war initiator.”

The reaction path of U.S. stocks amid gunfire is also clear: before WWII and earlier, wars mainly impacted the market through emotional shocks; since the Korean War, this direct effect has gradually weakened, and wars more often influence stocks through economic channels like inflation, oil prices, and fiscal deficits.
The Vietnam War was America’s only “loss-making” war and profoundly rewrote its war logic.
Since then, almost all conflicts initiated by the U.S. have had three features: short duration, small scope, and centered around oil—yet all ultimately achieved their goals.
So, do you still think it’s because of Trump personally? At least, most media now blame him personally, rather than imperialism or capitalism. We rarely mention capitalism anymore, deliberately blurring ideological distinctions. Personally, I think we lack in-depth research on how global capital operates, how it coordinates and controls other countries among allied nations. As a result, our judgments often focus on international politics, rather than analyzing the underlying influencing factors.

In summary, the evolution of the U.S. stock market’s response to war has followed a clear path: from “emotion-driven” to “economic transmission.” Early on, news of victory or defeat directly shook the market; after the Korean War, the market increasingly focused on fiscal expansion, inflation expectations, oil price fluctuations, and monetary policies. War itself is no longer the reason for market rises or falls; how war affects growth and costs is what the market truly prices. Besides Western civilization, Islamic civilization, and Middle Eastern geopolitics, the forces controlling global politics are the mix of capital, technology, and their organizational structures behind them.

The contest for AI sovereignty is also about building future digital sovereignty—if currency loses its meaning, and computing power and energy become trading commodities, sovereignty will also change. We now only have a relative advantage in military strength. There’s still a long way to go in understanding these aspects. Think about it: if even recognizing and understanding their existence is so difficult, it also shows that their hidden capabilities—order construction, influence, understanding and controlling human nature—are beyond what ordinary people can imagine. But the only thing we know for sure is their weakness—greed.
And greed inevitably leads to war and madness.
Chinese people are kind; we are people-centered, advocating for harmony and unity, not centered on capital. That is the core difference. But after Marx, it seems few have deeply studied Western capitalism; most are just ideologically aligned writers arguing and explaining. Ideas are the sharpest weapons in this world, and初心 (original intention) is our shield against darkness, determining how far we can go and where we are headed. No matter how clever the arguments, if we cannot control our greed, we will inevitably fall into chaos and entropy.