The US and Iran may be close to reaching a temporary agreement, with core US concerns put on hold.

BlockBeats News, May 8 — The United States and Iran may be close to reaching a temporary agreement. Several core demands previously proposed by the U.S., such as Iran suspending nuclear activities, limiting missile programs, and halting support for so-called “regional proxies,” were not included in the draft agreement. This ongoing agreement is centered around a short-term, one-page memorandum rather than a comprehensive peace treaty. It reflects deep disagreements between the two sides and indicates that the agreement is only a transitional step.

Sources familiar with the matter say Iran is reviewing this draft agreement aimed at ceasing hostilities but leaving the most controversial issues for future resolution. The agreement will consist of three phases: first, a formal end to hostilities; second, resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis; and finally, launching a 30-day negotiation window to seek a broader deal. The agreement fails to address key U.S. demands such as Iran suspending nuclear activities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, it does not mention several U.S. requests that Iran rejected, such as limiting Iran’s missile program and stopping support for so-called “proxy armed groups” like Hezbollah in Lebanon. (Xinhua News Agency)

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of “U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement” by May 15 is 26%, rising to 42% by May 31, and 56% by June 30.