XAUUSD Bulls Regain Control Amid Fed Uncertainty and Iran Tensions

Gold continues to gain support, trading above 4,700 for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Now approaching the highest level in a week and a half during European trading hours. But despite this upward movement, buyers remain cautious. They are holding back from making big bets until there is a clearer picture of what is happening with US-Iran talks.
The US dollar is still struggling because people do not expect the Federal Reserve to be as aggressive as before. This, in turn, increases demand for non-yielding assets like gold. However, the hope that a US-Iran peace deal might happen is making fewer people rush into safe-haven assets, which is currently limiting gold price gains.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump mentioned that talks with Iran had progressed quite rapidly in the past day, even saying that a deal seemed "very likely." Axios media also reported that an agreement between the two sides is getting closer to resolution.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to send conflicting messages. State-affiliated media deny the existence of a broader deal, stating that Tehran has rejected certain parts of the US offer. BBC also notes that Iran is reviewing a document that could gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease restrictions at its ports.
Although diplomatic steps have advanced, the risk of geopolitical issues remains high. This is especially true after Trump warned that if talks fail, Iran could face military action "with a level and intensity far higher than before." Disputes over Iran’s nuclear program are not over, meaning uncertainty still factors into the market. This prevents gold sellers from taking full control.
Looking at the broader economy, the US ADP report on Wednesday showed that private companies added 109,000 jobs in April. This figure was better than expected and indicates that the US labor market remains fairly stable. Additionally, based on CME FedWatch data, traders still believe there is a chance the Fed will raise interest rates again by the end of this year. This situation helps the US dollar avoid larger declines and also limits how high gold can rise.
Today, the market will focus on US Weekly Jobless Claims figures and listen to speeches from key Federal Reserve officials. But the biggest event everyone is waiting for is the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This report is likely to have a major impact on market expectations for the Fed and, in turn, on the next significant gold price movements.
Technical Outlook for XAUTUSD – Bulls Regain Momentum
Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold has broken above its short-term downtrend line. This indicates that after the recent decline, buyers are starting to regain control. The price sharply rebounded from the 4,520–4,550 area where there is strong demand, and is currently trading near 4,726.
This breakout pattern shows that buying strength is increasing. At the same time, momentum indicators are also beginning to show gains, supporting the idea of a sustained recovery.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 4,760 → 4,800 → 4,890
Support: 4,650 → 4,545
If gold manages to stay above the breakout area around 4,650, buyers may continue targeting the 4,800 level. However, if the price is rejected at the nearest resistance level, we could see some short-term consolidation. Still, the overall momentum in the near term points toward further gains.
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