Just came across this fascinating piece of market history – Samuel Benner's economic cycle theory from way back in 1875. The guy was essentially trying to crack the code on when to make money in financial markets, and honestly, his framework still holds up as a useful lens for thinking about long-term cycles.

So here's how Benner broke it down. He identified three distinct periods when to make money, and they rotate in a pretty predictable pattern. First, there are the panic years – roughly every 18 to 20 years, markets get hit hard. We're talking financial crises, sharp collapses, the kind of chaos that makes most people want to pull their money out. His list included 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and looking ahead to 2035. The key insight here? Don't panic sell during these periods. It's brutal to watch, but that's exactly when the real opportunities hide.

Then you've got the boom years – the recovery phases where prices surge and markets are firing on all cylinders. These are your windows to actually take profits and lock in gains. Benner tracked years like 1928, 1960, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and projected forward to 2026 and 2034. Notice how they don't align perfectly with the panic years? That's the whole point. There's a rhythm to it.

But here's where it gets interesting. Between those peaks, you get the recession and decline periods – the hard times when everything's cheap. 1924, 1942, 1958, 1978, 2005, 2012, 2023 – these are the years when prices are depressed and the economy's struggling. Most people hate these periods, but if you understand the cycle, this is actually when you want to be buying aggressively. Stocks, assets, commodities – everything's on sale.

The whole strategy is pretty straightforward when you zoom out: buy when it's cheap during recessions, hold through the volatility, then sell into the booms when prices are peaked. Avoid making emotional decisions during panic years. That's the playbook.

Now, important caveat – Benner's cycle is based on historical patterns and a long-term perspective, not some guaranteed law of nature. Markets get shaped by wars, politics, technological shifts, regulatory changes – all kinds of messy real-world factors that don't follow a neat 18-year schedule. But as a mental model for understanding how these long cycles work and when the actual periods when to make money typically emerge? It's pretty solid. Worth keeping in your back pocket when you're thinking about multi-year market positioning.