【Important Meetings/Data Summary for May 2026｜BTC Impact Edition】

This month’s focus is not on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, but on several sets of data that will influence the June rate cut expectations. BTC mainly watches: Non-farm Payrolls, CPI, PPI, FOMC meeting minutes, PCE/GDP.

1. The most important volatility days

May 8th, Friday｜U.S. April Non-farm Payrolls
Beijing Time: 20:30
Impact: High volatility
Judgment:
Cooling employment + slowing wages = Bullish for BTC
Strong employment + hot wages = Bearish for BTC
Poor employment data = May fall first, then rebound

May 12th, Tuesday｜U.S. April CPI
Beijing Time: 20:30
Impact: The most important inflation data this month
Judgment:
CPI below expectations = Bullish for BTC
CPI above expectations = Bearish for BTC
Focus on core CPI month-over-month

May 13th, Wednesday｜U.S. April PPI
Beijing Time: 20:30
Impact: Medium-high
Judgment:
PPI cooling = Bullish for BTC
PPI rising = Bearish for BTC

May 14th, Thursday｜U.S. Retail Sales
Beijing Time: 20:30
Impact: Medium-high
Judgment:
Moderate retail weakness = Bullish for BTC
Retail too strong = Bearish for BTC
Sharp retail decline = May trigger recession fears, first bearish then bullish

May 20th, Wednesday｜FOMC Meeting Minutes
Beijing Time: 02:00 next day
Impact: High volatility
Judgment:
Dovish minutes = Bullish for BTC
Hawkish minutes = Bearish for BTC
Reminder: Avoid heavy positions before and around early morning, as fake breakouts and trap trades are common

May 28th, Thursday｜U.S. PCE + GDP Revision
Beijing Time: 20:30
Impact: Major end-of-month event
Judgment:
PCE below expectations = Bullish for BTC
PCE above expectations = Bearish for BTC
Moderate GDP slowdown = Slightly bullish
Weak GDP = May trigger risk aversion, short-term bearish

2. Central bank focus this month

There is no official Federal Reserve rate decision in May.
Next FOMC rate meeting is around mid-June.
This month’s more important event is the May 20th FOMC meeting minutes, used to judge whether the Fed is leaning hawkish or dovish internally.

3. BTC trading rhythm

Around May 8:
Before the non-farm report, reduce heavy positions; confirm direction after data release.

May 12 to 14:
CPI, PPI, and retail sales are released consecutively, creating the biggest volatility window this month.
Avoid chasing highs or selling lows; wait for data to settle before making directional bets.

May 20:
FOMC meeting minutes released early morning, not recommended to hold full positions overnight.
Focus on whether the Fed emphasizes persistent inflation.

May 28:
PCE and GDP determine risk appetite at month’s end.
If PCE cools down, BTC may rebound by month’s end.
If PCE exceeds expectations, BTC may face pressure and pull back.

4. One-sentence summary

In May, BTC’s core focus is on inflation and rate cut expectations:
Data cooling but economy not collapsing = Bullish for BTC
Data too strong, inflation too hot = Bearish for BTC
Poor data and rising recession fears = First bearish, then watch for rate cut rebound