Been watching the macro signals pretty closely, and there's something interesting happening that could reshape timing expectations for the next crypto bull run.

So the U.S. manufacturing PMI just hit 52.7 - the highest we've seen since 2022. More importantly, it's stayed above 50 for three consecutive months now. That's expansion territory after nearly three years of contraction. For context, that's the longest manufacturing contraction streak in over a century of ISM records. Pretty significant.

Here's where it gets interesting for crypto. Historically, these macro expansions have aligned with major bull markets. Look back at 2013, 2017, and 2021 - each of those rallies coincided with periods of rising manufacturing activity and improving liquidity. The pattern is pretty consistent.

What's notable is that Bitcoin already crossed $100k even while we were still in contraction territory. That shows there's underlying demand that's independent of macro conditions. But if the macro backdrop is actually shifting now, that could accelerate things.

Raoul Pal made an interesting observation on this. He's pointing out that crypto doesn't necessarily follow the traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle in isolation. His take is that we're actually in a five-year business cycle, and by that logic, the ISM should peak around 2026. Basically saying crypto is following the broader economic cycle, not just the halving schedule.

There are two main frameworks people are using to think about the next crypto bull run right now. First, the traditional view: Bitcoin halving events drive the cycle. After the April 2024 halving, we saw consolidation and then new highs in 2025. Following that pattern, we'd expect the next major peak to stretch into 2026 or potentially beyond. Second, the macro-driven view: If PMI expansion continues and liquidity conditions improve, we could see faster momentum than the traditional timeline suggests. Lower interest rates would typically support risk assets, including crypto.

One thing worth noting - Coinbase did a survey showing 74 percent of institutional investors expect crypto prices to rise in the next 12 months. Even more interesting, 73 percent are planning to increase their crypto exposure in 2026. That's pretty strong institutional conviction.

Of course, liquidity conditions and external factors still matter. Geopolitical developments and regulatory moves in the U.S. could shift things. But the macro setup is definitely worth paying attention to if you're thinking about the next crypto bull run and where we are in the cycle. The signals are pointing toward conditions that have historically supported broader market participation.