#Gate广场五月交易分享 #稳定币储备下降

On May 7th, Bitcoin's current rebound from around 60k to 83k, nearly 40%, is a technical correction within a bear market, not a trend reversal; the current range of 82.5k to 84k is close to the top, and subsequent movements are likely to fluctuate downward and break previous lows, with the final drop of the bear market completing before a true reversal occurs. The following detailed analysis covers four aspects: core logic, technical basis, historical analogy, and operational suggestions:
1. Core judgment: Bear market rebound, not the start of a bull market

1. The long-term stance remains unchanged: Although this rebound is strong (60k → 83k, nearly 40% increase), it is defined as a healthy technical correction within a bear market, not the beginning of a main upward wave.

2. Lack of major volume surge signals: The market is gradually rising with consolidation, without short-term large bullish candles or obvious continuous inflow of major funds, which does not meet the characteristics of a main upward wave.

3. Market sentiment features: Short squeeze and shakeout: This is a typical bear market pattern of clearing out the short positions—consolidating upward, continuously reaching new highs, forcing short sellers to stop-loss, causing oscillation between bulls and bears, ultimately inducing more buyers and turning the market bullish, consistent with the cyclical sentiment pattern at the end of a bear market.