Recently, everyone has been talking about interest rate cut expectations, the US dollar index, and casually bringing up the idea that "the dollar and risk assets rise and fall together" for discussion again... It sounds to me like the same song played with a different arrangement on the radio. To put it simply, macro signals reach my positions in two steps: whether I dare to take risks in my mind, and whether I am willing to add more hands-on. When interest rate expectations loosen, emotions tend to drift easily, and positions unconsciously become heavier; when they tighten, even if there are no bad news on the chain, people will withdraw first.

I treat complexity as an enemy: just focus on one switch—when risk appetite rises, don’t chase the highs, and add slowly; when risk appetite drops, prioritize survival and keep some bullets. Anyway, I’m this slow-to-warm-up radio station, only responsible for turning down the volume a bit, so I don’t blow my own ears out.