#Gate广场五月交易分享 The large-scale Bitcoin rally is about to arrive! Expected to reach $1 million within five years

VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Matthew Siegel, stated on Wednesday that despite Bitcoin remaining in a decline this year, he believes a major rally is imminent. Matthew Siegel said that Bitcoin reaching $1 million is the company's “base case forecast,” and this milestone could be achieved within the next five years. He added, “This is a super trend, but it will be very volatile along the way.”
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $81k, and although it has still been declining this year, it has shown a strong rebound over the past month. Matthew Siegel pointed out several factors supporting his bullish outlook.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index, which has a high proportion of technology stocks, has reached its highest level in five years, driving recent gains as part of a broader macro trend. More importantly, he noted that the derivatives market shows no signs of overheating, indicating that the current rise is mainly driven by short covering rather than a speculative bubble. Matthew Siegel also emphasized demographic trends and compared Bitcoin adoption to the development of the video game industry. He said, “30 years ago, only kids played video games. Now Elon Musk also plays video games. People won’t quit gaming, and they won’t give up on Bitcoin either.”
Market participants believe that the $80k level has significant psychological importance. Richard Galvin, CEO of crypto investment firm DACM, stated that this level has long been a key resistance point in the market, and a successful breakthrough could provide further upward momentum for the asset class.
Meanwhile, according to the prediction market Kalshi, the market roughly estimates a 50% chance that Bitcoin will retake $100k by 2026.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February, Bitcoin has risen approximately 20%, demonstrating strong resilience amid geopolitical shocks and rising oil prices. Recent signs of easing in Middle Eastern tensions have also boosted investor appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The crypto market is also being driven by positive policy expectations. Investors are optimistic that the U.S. may reach an agreement on terms related to stablecoin yields, which could clear obstacles for crypto legislation in the Senate and further improve market sentiment.
It is reported that after months of intense negotiations, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation has finally made a major breakthrough. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks have reached a comprehensive agreement on stablecoin yield provisions, removing major hurdles for the advancement of the CLARITY Act in the Senate.
According to the obtained text, this compromise imposes significant restrictions on the rewards and returns offered by stablecoins. The agreement explicitly states that all reward mechanisms “economically or functionally equivalent to” bank deposit interest will be prohibited. This broad restriction aims to prevent stablecoins from directly competing with traditional bank savings products, responding to longstanding banking industry concerns about “deposit flight.”
However, the agreement does not implement a blanket ban but retains considerable flexibility. Stablecoin balances can be used for reward mechanisms but must pass an “equivalence test.” This means crypto companies can still offer incentives under certain conditions, but high-yield models mimicking bank interest structures will be blocked.
This compromise has become a key leverage point for the entire crypto market structure legislation. The bill aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over different areas of the digital asset ecosystem.
With the resolution of stablecoin yield issues, the legislative process is expected to accelerate. It is also reported that significant progress has been made in areas such as token classification, decentralized finance regulation, and asset tokenization. The final text of the CLARITY Act is expected to be finalized soon and submitted for a vote by the Senate Banking Committee.
Concerns within the banking sector that stablecoin yields could divert deposits have been a major obstacle to legislation. The recently reached agreement not only grants the banking system stronger control but also preserves core customer acquisition and incentive mechanisms for the crypto industry, seen by the market as a pragmatic step toward clarifying U.S. crypto regulation.