“BTC OG Insider Whale” agent: The underlying risks in the market are building up; the Iran-U.S. ceasefire can only delay the escalation of the real conflict.

Mars Finance news: On May 7, Garrett Jin, an agent for “BTC OG insider whale,” posted an article titled “The Illusion of a Ceasefire,” pointing out that while the market appears calm on the surface, underlying risks are building up, and traders should not let their guard down. After Trump’s recent state visit to China (April 14 to 15), the US-Iran military window could reopen at any time. A ceasefire is not the start of good news; it is a delay in the escalation of real conflict.

At present, the market looks optimistic on the surface: Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum, Apple’s Q3 guidance far exceeded expectations, AMD’s data center revenue hit a new high, South Korean stocks reached new highs, and Bitcoin is nearing 82-83k, with risk sentiment still intact.

But underneath, market credit has begun to weaken: data analytics company Qualtrics plans major transactions, yet no one is willing to take them on; US Spirit Airlines has recently filed for bankruptcy—an obvious sign of operating difficulties for low-cost airlines; banks are worried that the war between the US and Iran could escalate, so they have already set aside provisions for bad debt reserves, essentially setting money aside for potential wartime risks. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves have reached a record high, among other signs.

Garrett Jin believes that the US-Iran false peace will be maintained only until it can no longer be sustained. Late May could be a potential turning point. However, if technology giants continue to beat expectations, the market’s strong performance may continue through the Q3 earnings season, thereby pushing back the risk window accordingly.