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We expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and to continue its tightening stance.
We anticipate that the policy statement will not change much, except to acknowledge recent signs of softening inflation.
After the release of CPI data, the views of Fed speakers have largely aligned, although the current inflation trend is encouraging, clear evidence of a rapid cooling in inflation is still lacking.
Finally, we expect the Fed to reiterate that inflation remains at a relatively high level and that it is still "highly attentive to inflation risks."
There are currently two dovish risks.
First, if the statement explicitly acknowledges signs of softening inflation, market participants might reinforce expectations that the terminal rate has arrived.
Additionally, Fed officials previously stated they are "highly concerned about inflation risks"; if this time the word "highly" is removed, it could be seen as an unexpected dovish signal.
At the press conference, we look forward to Powell clearly explaining: what kind of indicator signals does the Fed need to see before stopping rate hikes.
(The above views are from JPMorgan Chase and are for reference only.)