Analysis: Bitcoin fails to break above the 200-day moving average and falls back below $81k, sparking market caution based on historical trends

According to reports from CoinDesk, Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA, around $83,300) on Wednesday but failed to break through effectively, then retreated below $81,000. Meanwhile, the overall crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index dropping over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the weakest among major sectors.
The market generally regards the 200-day moving average as an important indicator of long-term trend. If BTC can hold above this level, it will further reinforce the narrative that "the bear market ended when Bitcoin fell below $63k in February this year, and a new bull market has begun."
However, similar situations occurred in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average but ultimately fell to around $20k by June of the same year. Therefore, some analysts warn to be cautious of the "false breakout" risk.
Analysis firm Marex stated that whether BTC can continue to rise depends on three main factors: whether spot funds continue to chase the rally, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, and whether the derivatives market remains healthy but not overheated. If all three align, Bitcoin could quickly open up space toward the $85k range.
FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that this correction is more like a brief pause in the upward trend rather than the end of the trend. However, he also warned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and past similar situations have been accompanied by significant pullbacks.
Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen from a high of 4.46% at the start of the month to 4.32%, which is seen as a potential positive factor for risk assets.
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