I've been pondering a question: why do I always only go long, always moved to tears?

This isn't a matter of faith, but a choice made after seeing the data clearly. I know many people will ask, can't you also make money by shorting? Markets go up and down; if you only go long, aren't you only making money when prices rise? But this logic actually overlooks a fundamental issue.

First, let's talk about why shorting seems reasonable. Indeed, if you can both go long and short, theoretically, there are opportunities in the crypto market 365 days a year. Shorting can also be leveraged with contracts, and technical analysis predictions should be symmetrical in predicting rises and falls. And I admit, the sense of superiority when successfully shorting—knowing the truth—definitely isn't something you get from just going long. Even continuous losses don't negate this strategy, because those who go long also lose quite a bit; every strategy has wins and losses.

But the key is, I’ve carefully studied Bitcoin's historical data.

From April 2013 to August 2021, over 8 years, more than 3,000 days of data. The number of days it rose and fell is nearly evenly split; only 54% of days closed higher. But what was the result? Bitcoin went from $134 to $47,000, a 350-fold increase. What does this tell us? It shows that the gains and losses are fundamentally asymmetrical. Each upward move far exceeds the downward moves.

If you go long and are right, your gains are unlimited—the higher the price goes, the more you earn. But if you short and are right, your gains will keep converging. For example, if you invest $100 and the price rises from $1 to $50, you end up with $5,000. But if you short $100 and the price drops from $50 to $1, you only end up with $198. That’s the difference. The profit cap for shorting is 100%, and leverage doesn’t change this model.

More importantly, the crypto industry is still in its early stages, with potential for 100x growth in the future. People's acceptance only increases. In such a long-term, high-speed growth market, going long is simply riding the trend. Shorting? At most, it’s riding the small trend and fighting the big trend, like picking up coins in front of a bulldozer.

Some might say, "In a bull market, go long; in a bear market, go short." But this idea overlooks one point: the risk-reward ratio of shorting is low, returns are deflationary, and it fights the big trend—these hold true even in a bear market. Shorting is like poison; no matter how long you drink it, its nature doesn’t change.

As retail investors, a more rational approach is to adjust your position based on the market. Be 70-100% long when optimistic, 30% long when bearish, and 50% when uncertain. This way, you can profit from rising markets and also keep accumulating coins during declines. Making money in rising markets and accumulating coins during drops—that’s the way to survive long-term in the crypto market.

Always going long isn’t stubbornness; it’s a rational choice based on seeing the data clearly and understanding the market’s essence.