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Tonight’s market focus is the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data for the week.
At present, market expectations are 205.0 thousand, with the previous value at 189.0 thousand, which suggests the market is starting to bet that there are signs of a cooling in U.S. employment.
If the figure released tonight is higher than expected, it indicates that employment pressure is increasing; market expectations for further rate cuts may heat up even more. Risk sentiment could get a boost, and BTC may have the chance to rally higher in the short term.
But if the data comes in below expectations, it means U.S. employment is still strong. The Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high or continue extending the period during which they remain high. In that case, market risk-averse sentiment may flare up again, and it’s not out of the question that BTC could surge and then pull back—possibly even testing lower again for a second time.
Judging from the recent price action, BTC has been repeatedly tussling above the 80,000 mark, and the divide between bulls and bears is already very clear. Right now, it’s more like the market is waiting to choose a direction after the data lands.
At times like this, the biggest taboo is blindly chasing rallies or panic-selling. Volatility around the release—before and after—tends to be amplified, and if you’re not careful, it’s easy to get swept back and forth and end up with losses.
Tonight, keep an eye on the market’s first wave of sentiment after the data is announced. Waiting patiently for direction to be confirmed before following through will be steadier.
Opportunities are there every day, but the people who truly manage to capture profits are often the ones who can control their emotions and their pace.
$BTC #Gate广场五月交易分享
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