Honestly, the Bitcoin dominance chart is one of the most tense charts in the current market. And here’s why it’s so important: without a sustained decline in dominance, the bull market for stablecoins won’t be complete, but without a sustained decline in BTC dominance, we won’t see the altseason everyone is expecting.

Since December 9, when Bitcoin’s dominance entered a steady downtrend, an important signal for the start of a global altseason was announced. But what happened? Many altcoins simply got crushed. Only the most confident spot traders remained, those holding leveraged futures with 2x, and extremists with 3-4-5x leverage, who kept adding liquidity. First, they were lured by rising BTC, then finished off by the TRUMP token. In the end, only the most resilient remained, and some even started buying more.

Regarding the Bitcoin dominance chart, it was critical not to close above the 58.65% level. During this entire period, a close above only happened once, in mid-December. Last week, it closed at 58.64%. Now, dominance is hovering in the same range. This is a bad sign — such compression hints at possible problems. If the 57-58.65% range holds for some more time, dominance will return to a steady weekly uptrend, which means an even longer pause for altcoin growth. But honestly, I don’t expect such an outcome.

On hourly timeframes, according to my indicator, there are no good news signals for altcoins — all show steady uptrends in dominance. However, there’s an interesting point: a potential double top signal on the 12-hour timeframe. If it doesn’t play out properly, dominance will return to an uptrend on the daily timeframe as well.

Another negative factor is that in recent days, the descending trendline from the previous high in this cycle has been broken. It is currently holding above the local trendline from January 2024. If the rise continues, the only hope for altcoins is the global trendline from November 2022, which is now around 59.46%.

Recalling the last cycle: on March 29, 2021, a sharp decline in BTC dominance began. And here’s what’s interesting — during the first 17 days of this decline, dominance was falling, while BTC was rising from $55,000 to $64,500. It’s like a rise to around $122,000 now. And that was only one-third of the collapse that ended by mid-May. This answers the question: can dominance fall while BTC is rising? Maybe, it just takes faster liquidity flow into altcoins than into BTC itself.