Recently, I’ve been studying the bull and bear cycle patterns in the crypto world and have discovered a pretty interesting model.

Based on historical data, the crypto bull and bear cycles roughly follow a four-year pattern. Looking at past milestones makes it clear—2013, 2017, 2021—the pattern is quite strong. And each bull market seems to be related to Bitcoin halving events. In the past two halvings, Bitcoin has risen tenfold or more, taking an average of 33 months to trigger a new bull run.

Bull markets are truly crazy when they arrive. During the 2017 wave, Bitcoin’s price once exceeded $20k, and the phrase “To the moon” flooded social media—everyone wanted to get in and share the gains. The atmosphere back then was one word—crazy. But such madness never lasts forever.

In contrast, bear markets are much colder. From 2018 to 2019, Bitcoin plummeted from tens of thousands of dollars to just a few thousand, turning the once-riches story into a painful memory. During bear markets, the market begins to clear out bubbles, venture capital decreases, projects shut down, and only the truly capable projects survive.

In terms of duration, bull markets usually last about a year, while bear markets tend to be longer, possibly lasting two years or more. But these timeframes are not absolute; policies, market demand, and the global economic situation all influence the rhythm of bull markets.

Taking 2024 as an example, Bitcoin is entering a halving cycle. According to past patterns, it will first dip and then rapidly surge. Halving is a good excuse for whales to push prices up and attract capital. There are predictions that in 2025, Bitcoin could break through $150k, with a peak around $200k. Whales and institutions often promote certain projects at the top of the bull market and then secretly sell off. When a large number of retail investors flood in and market sentiment is extremely FOMO-driven, that’s usually the end of the bull run.

Honestly, in the crypto cycle of bull and bear markets, time is the best witness. During bull markets, beware of over-investing; during bear markets, stay patient. Market volatility is normal—rationality and patience are the best weapons. Trust in strength, wait for opportunities, and you can stay steady in this challenging market.