Polymarket's new betting market: the "air duel" between $50k and $90k Bitcoin

Just as the market has not fully recovered from the smoke of geopolitical conflicts, a string of numbers on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket once again stirs the sensitive nerves of crypto players. On March 1st, the latest data shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling to $50k this year has dropped back to 62%. Although this number still exceeds half, compared to the extreme panic of a few days ago, there has been a subtle change.

Meanwhile, another set of bullish data is even more intriguing: the forecasted 72% chance that Bitcoin will rebound to $80k within the year, while the probability of reaching $90k is 47%. On one side is the bottomless “$50k abyss,” and on the other is the “$90k paradise” within reach. This betting game on Polymarket sketches out the most conflicted Bitcoin trend chart for 2026.

1. Polymarket Indicator: Is Panic Ebbing?

● As a blockchain-based prediction platform, trading volume on Polymarket is often seen as an “instant thermometer” of market sentiment. The probability of Bitcoin dropping to $50k this year, which has fallen from an earlier high to 62%, is interpreted by many analysts as a phased peak of extreme panic.

● Just a few days ago, influenced by escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin’s price plunged to around $63,000, with market fear and greed indices dropping to “extreme fear.” In this context, bearish bets on Polymarket surged. However, as Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around $68,000, recovering what’s called the “war loss,” the prediction market data was also revised accordingly.

● It’s worth noting that a 62% probability of decline is still a significant figure. This indicates that, in the eyes of Polymarket participants, Bitcoin testing the $50k mark again within the year remains a “big probability among small probabilities.” This seemingly contradictory expectation reflects the current market split: although a short-term rebound is rapid, the macro clouds have not yet dispersed.

2. Bulls and Bears Tug-of-War: 72% Hope for Rebound and 47% Distant Outlook

● Data shows that the market is highly confident in “returning to $80k,” with a 72% probability suggesting most players believe this recovery is inevitable. After the frenzy of the past year, $80k is seen as a relatively reasonable central point.

● The real divergence lies in $90k. The 47% probability sits in the gray area between “possible” and “impossible.” This indicates significant doubts about whether Bitcoin can break through the previous high and open a new chapter within the year. This probability preserves the spark of a bull market but also signals that upward pressure and resistance are not trivial.

● This “hope for a rebound but not a new high” mentality is a typical product of collision between bear market thinking and bull market inertia.

3. Analyst Insights: Is the Final Bottom Still a Downtrend?

Faced with this tangled data on Polymarket, market analysts have offered different technical interpretations.

● An analyst using the pseudonym “@gmulun” posted a roadmap on social media, suggesting that he believes Bitcoin still needs to experience one last “dip” before a genuine rebound begins. His predictive model indicates that Bitcoin may form a final bottom around $55,000 in March, completing the so-called “market capitulation” phase.

● The analysis further points out that, as macro-level expectations of potential rate cuts ferment, April could become an accumulation