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2. CPI data reaches the 7.5%-7.7% range; U.S. stocks fall by 2.5%-3.5%. If November inflation slows versus the prior reading, but the rate of slowdown does not reach 0.2%, the S&P 500 index may drop by 2.3%. If this is combined with the recent bear-market rebound, the market could see even more severe volatility; at that time, the S&P 500 index would fall by 2.5%-3.5%, with a 25% probability.