Middle East suddenly "not fighting anymore"?

Crude oil and BTC are starting to become tense at the same time

Recently, the market is very much like a large matchmaking scene.
Trump is responsible for shouting: "It's almost done!"
Iran remains silent and makes no statement.
Global capital is frantically guessing the plot on the side.
As news of the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum is exposed, the market's first reaction is:
Risk On!
Crude oil pulls back.
U.S. stocks rally.
BTC also becomes active again.
But strangely, safe-haven assets haven't completely collapsed.
Gold is still holding on.
The dollar hasn't fully weakened either.
What does this indicate?
It shows that the truly big funds haven't fully believed in this "peace script."
Because the biggest risk now isn't war.
It's:
"Expectation gap."
Many funds have already bet in advance:
As long as the Middle East eases, oil prices will continue to fall.
And when oil prices drop, the Fed's pressure eases, and risk assets can party again.
But the problem is:
The negotiations haven't truly been finalized yet.
And Iran is clearly dissatisfied with some conditions.
This means that the current market is actually in:
"Pre-celebration stage."
And the most dangerous time for financial markets is often when they are celebrating prematurely.
Because once variables appear later, market sentiment can reverse instantly.
Especially crude oil.
The recent rapid decline isn't because supply suddenly surged.
It's because the market is trading "decreased war risk."
But if the situation fluctuates again later, oil prices could violently rebound at any time.
Then risk assets will once again freak out collectively.
And BTC is now in a particularly awkward position.
In peace, it acts like tech stocks.
In tension, it is also regarded by some funds as digital gold.
So recently, its trend is very much like:
"Want to surge, but afraid; want to fall, but unwilling."
But one trend is becoming increasingly obvious.
More and more institutions are starting to hold BTC long-term, rather than just short-term speculation.
Because they are truly betting on:
Future global uncertainty.
So the core of the market now isn't just "whether there will be a ceasefire."
It's:
Whether global capital still believes the old order can remain stable for the long term.
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