Is BTC reversal or a trap for more gains?

Same question, is MaJie still around? It’s basically a counter-indicator king, infinitely liquidating positions, I really can’t stop laughing!

Reversal is the true trend change;诱多 (诱导多头) is just the market maker pulling the price up to lure everyone in, then quickly smashing the market to harvest. Everyone’s opinions vary; there’s no absolute right or wrong.

Today, let’s focus on three key points:

First, why did BTC suddenly rebound recently?

Second, what stage is the market currently in?

Third, are the main funds really buying with real money, or are they just setting up traps to诱多?

To judge whether the market is genuine or fake, first understand: what is the core reason for this wave of rise?

The biggest macro variable recently is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict.

Initially, the market’s reaction was very direct: stocks + crypto markets all declined sharply, US stocks, Korean stocks, and Japanese stocks all plunged collectively, with the Korean KOSPI index hitting two circuit breakers, panic sentiment reaching its peak.

Then, it entered the second stage: funds started seeking safe-haven assets again, which we call alternative safe assets.

After panic sentiment was released, some funds began reallocating into BTC. This trend is almost identical to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 — first a big drop, then a rebound.

Can you see the chart I posted? This rebound has a key feature: trading volume is extremely high, and the change in open interest is very obvious. It’s real money entering the market to open positions, not a false surge to诱多.

Additionally, looking at ETF fund flows, it’s clear that funds are entering.

Actually, market laws are like this: when emotions are extremely panicked, rebounds are more likely because most of the short positions that should exit have already been released, and selling pressure is thoroughly cleared.

Here’s a reminder: rebound ≠ reversal, these two are not the same!

So next, we need to look at something more core: market structure.

From a structural perspective, BTC’s current state is very clear: it’s in a range-bound phase.

The current major fluctuation range is roughly between 63,000 and 73,000, a typical wide-range oscillation.

This stage is crucial for institutions because it’s a key period for re-distribution and re-accumulation of chips.

Simply put: some are selling and exiting, others are buying in, and BTC’s price oscillates back and forth during this game. Whether it’s accumulation or shakeout depends entirely on the chip movements.

At this point, one data point becomes the core for judgment: chip distribution, which is the part formed by the blue and orange columns on the right side of the chart, directly shows the majority of market participants’ cost basis.

By comparing the chip structures in the last two periods, we find that the patterns are highly similar, both are multi-peak structures.

A multi-peak structure usually indicates: market chips are changing hands rapidly, and the bullish and bearish opinions are still very divided.

Here are two key signals to watch closely:

First, the chip concentration area in the second stage is narrower than in the first stage. To add, the dark-colored part represents the 50% chip concentration zone. When this area narrows, it indicates that market consensus is gradually strengthening.

Second, the 50% chip concentration zone in the second stage has moved upward. In a normal correction, the chip center of gravity should move downward; an upward shift now indicates a short-term bullish structure signal.

Let me also briefly explain the basic usage of chip distribution, so beginners can quickly understand:

When the price is above the chip peak, that chip peak acts as support;

When the price is below the chip peak, that chip peak acts as resistance.

For example, the chip peak circled at the bottom in the chart is a strong support; the chip peak pointed to by the arrow at the top is a strong resistance.

Chip distribution over different timeframes varies. This is a proprietary chip distribution feature of AiCoin PRO.

It can display all chips or allow custom lines to focus on specific time ranges.

Now, let’s look at the most critical core: the true behavior of main funds.

To judge whether this wave of rise is real or fake, the key point is: are the main players actually buying?

Look at the chart: during this rise, major platforms’ main players placed many large-limit sell orders, which are real resistance levels.

What happened? All of these were actively absorbed by funds, with strong buying pressure. The main players’ sell orders were continuously eaten up, and the price didn’t pull back. This is a typical sign of strength.

Another key data point: the main players’ active buying behavior.

The green circles in the chart are all market buy orders.

The core performance during this period: main players’ market buy orders > market sell orders, indicating large funds are actively accumulating.

Remember, retail traders generally don’t use market orders continuously (due to fees and slippage), so these large market orders of ≥1 million USD are from big players, genuine funds.

To summarize main player actions:

The limit sell orders placed by main players are being passively filled, while they actively buy with market orders. This can be fully understood as: main players are exerting effort to accumulate!

Additionally, tracking main players’ limit orders, fills, and market transactions can be done with our PRO indicators.

Another judgment tip: observe whether there are large orders at the same price level that are frequently placed and canceled.

If this pattern exists, and the orders are very short-lived, they are usually bait orders, which can be clearly seen on the bait order display.

By combining all data—chip structure + main player transactions—you can make a clear judgment.

My view is very clear: this is a rebound, not a reversal.

I still maintain last week’s view: the big trend has not changed.

The core logic has two points:

First, the chip center of gravity is moving upward, indicating the market structure is not broken;

Second, the main players’ market buy orders are increasing, indicating genuine funds are supporting.

Therefore, the current market condition is: structural rebound + main players testing the upper resistance.

Tonight, focus on two signals:

First, whether the chip continues to move upward;

Second, whether main players continue to actively buy.

The 74k level is a key dividing line; above it, there’s a gap on CME at 78,000–81k.

If BTC can effectively break through 74k, it has a chance to push into this gap zone.